Monday, November 16, 2015

How Will France React?

The dust has yet to settle but I wonder what will be the aftermath?

Update:

Here's a useful link which explains exactly how France has reacted thus far.

Two possibilities, I think.

1.  If the authorities do not quickly catch the perpetrators and their enablers from within the Muslim community within three or four days then I think there is a fair chance the Global Climate Wankfest will be cancelled.    Just too much of a risk to let it go ahead.

2.  When the authorities discover which mosques harboured the killers and their enablers I expect those establishments will be entered and searched from stem to stern.  If, as I suspect, caches of weapons, suicide vests and explosives are found, those establishments will be razed and their officials incarcerated.

Now, let's' wait and see.  On this occasion, I don't think the French will mess around.

9 comments:

Andrew Berwick. said...

Now, let's' wait and see. On this occasion, I don't think the French will mess around.

2 million Muslims in Paris alone. All cattle-class Airbus 380 seats about 800, so that'd be 2500 flights. Ten aircraft, easily doable in less than a year. But will they? will they hell.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

AB

I said they wouldn't mess around. I didn't say they were stupid.

The Veteran said...

Interesting question ... the French justice system is somewhat more 'robust' (if that's the word) in dealing with terrorists and I agree with 'the Rupert' (on another thread) that their police and intelligence agencies are not to be messed about with ... but that's not the question is it.

The French body politik has a long history of 'tolerance' punctuated by the occasional lurches to the left and to the right. The old hoary of 'Why do French roads have poplars planted along the edge' ... answer 'to keep the sun off the Germans as they march through' comes to mind. So the question is will that so called toleration come under pressure.

The litmus test will be whether Marine Le Pen's National Front (anti-immigrant) Party manages to capitalize on the tragedy. It starts from a position of some strength. Le Pen is acknowledged by her opponents as a formidable politician. In the first round of the 2012 Presidential election she polled close to 18% with 6.42m votes and finished in third place so the building blocks are there.

I guess much will depend on how Hollande and Vails handle the situation.

pdm said...

I don't know Vails but the impression I have of Hollande is that he may not have the spine for the real hard decisions. Still if it is a matter of staying in power and `needs must' he may surprise me.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

How ironic if Le Pen should gain power and bring back the guillotine for these savages.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

I must say, to my uneducated mind, this state of emergency seems not far removed from martial law.

JC said...

"this state of emergency seems not far removed from martial law."

And politically advisable in the short term. People *want* to see action.. at least in the short term until the storm blows over and the personal cost exceeds the sense of outrage.

George Bush showed that when after a year or so his actions against al Qaeda exceeded the outrage of the loss of 3000 people. My sense is that Europe and the Western world will be prepared to accept up to 50 such Paris "outrages" per year before it would be prepared to spend the 2-3% of GDP and human resources to effectively stop them.

JC

Noel said...

"I must say, to my uneducated mind, this state of emergency seems not far removed from martial law"

Along way France isn't Thailand.

Anonymous said...

Thought I would sit back and watch.

Result; No borders closed, never have been and never will. Apart from Paris everybody going about there business, one minutes silence in Bordeaux supermarket largely unobserved. No observable police presence. Cafes full.

Press reported Armee de l'Air dropped 20 bombs first day. I've heard twenty aerial bombs in 10 seconds.

All politician putting on their "leadership in crisis" faces and appeasing the national urge for revenge .......all bollocks of course