Sunday, November 29, 2015


I can understand why the Democrats will nominate Clinton as their Presidential candidate ... they don't have any options; Senator Sanders, the self declared socialist, is about as electable as George McGovern was back in 1972 when he won just two States and 17 Electoral College votes.

Not so with the Republicans.   They have choices and just why they would turn to Donald Trunp as their nominee sure beats the hell outa me.   Trump isn't a Republican just as he was never a real Democrat ... he's Trump, pure and simple, first and foremost and, while the US Constitution provides for an executive presidency, the reality is that the President has to work with the Congress (House and Senate) so as to avoid a total stand-off where there are no winners.    Trump clearly doesn't 'do' consensus in any way, shape or form and I guess that's one of his attributes that endears him to many Americans.   But my real worry is that his simple solutions to complex problems approach may see the law of unintended consequences come into play and that could present a real danger to world peace.   To some extent Trump reminds me of Corbyn ... my way or the highway.

Not sure about Carson nice fellow as he is .... clearly both he and Trump have benefited from their positioning as 'non' politicians and establishment outsiders but there is a limit to how far you can push that barrow in appealing to the entire electorate as opposed to Party activists.

So, as it stands right now, I am leaning towards either Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio as my preferred Republican nominee (with Cruz having the edge).   Both are young and represent the future; Cruz 45, Rubio 44 compared to Clinton, two+ decades older at 68.   Both are smart and articulate; they are Senators and know how the system works.  Both are Hispanic which is an increasingly important voting demographic although they have differing positions on illegal immigrants with Cruz taking a tougher line.    Above all, both have the political nous to be able reach out into middle America where the election is to be won or lost.

At least the Republicans have choices ... the Democrats don't.   For them it's the unelectable vs damaged goods.

Updated #1   In the latest poll conducted over the period 16-22 November among Republicans eligible to vote in the Iowa Caucus Primary (the first in the nation) Trump comes in ahead of Cruz 25% vs 23% followed by Carson at 18% and Rubio at 13%.

Updated #2   Clinton has more staffers on the ground in every State than all the Republican candidates combined.    She will run a very formidable campaign.


Howie said...

ROFL. Trump's a grifter and a nasty, pathological bully and liar, so fits in well with the rest of the GOP, but Cruz is simply batshit crazy (as if he could work with the House of Reps, they all hate him). The Republicans have only won the popular vote in a presidential election once since 1988 and can't figure out why. That's not gonna change.

Andrei said...

Who gives a shit - its not like you get a say in which performing monkey gets to commit mass murder across the planet and has to convince the people that they are doing it for humanitarian reason.

Anonymous said...

The only voting bloc that Trump doesn't own right now is the evangelicals. The reason for Trump's success at the moment ?

Two words "illegal immigration".

As it stands, the Dems want all of those illegals to become citizens, chained to the welfare rolls as loyal Democrat voters. The Republican establishment, as deep in the pocket of the US Chamber Of Crony Capitalism as they are, want a never ending pool of cheap labour. Trump is the antithesis of all that.

The Veteran said...

Howie ... guezz, your pathological hatred of the right is sad. Most normal people can acknowledge there are good people in all political parties but, never mind, if that's what rings your bell go2it ... sez much about you and your tunnel vision. For the record I think the greatest American president since WW2 was Democrat HST and I have previously blogged my reasons for saying that.

I see you are good on manipulating the numbers to suit with your comment that the Republicans have only won the popular vote once since 1988. Role that back to 1980 when Reagan defeated Carter and it works out at Democrats 5 vs Republicans 4.

As for Ted Cruz being hated by the 'House of Reps' ... do your friggin homework b4 you spruke ... he doesn't serve in the House, he's the Junior Senator from Texas having defeated his Democrat opponent 56.4% to 40.6% (other 3% to also-rans) and picking up 40% of the Hispanic vote. What I do like about Cruz (and it's a given you won't) is that he is a convinced 'free trader'. Trump ain't and Clinton changes her views dependent on the audience she's addressing. There is also his self-depreciating humour ... 'I'm Cuban, Irish and Italian yet somehow I ended up as Southern Baptist'.

Trump clearly sees him as a threat as he has raised the issue of him being born in Canada.
Because he was a US citizen at birth most commentators including the respected Neil Katyl
and Paul Clement (who have represented both Democrat and Republican Presidents in the Supreme Court) have written in the Harvard law Review that Cruz meets the constitutional standard to run.