Monday, March 16, 2015

It is a seriously inexact Science.



The devastation of Vanuatu by possibly the most destructive cyclone in recorded history and the apparent comparative lucky escape for NZ show that fact.

While scare mongers and troughers using computer models and scooping up obscene amounts of money to their personal wealth prevaricate over the world's dependence on fossil fuels and a mythical slag heap of garbage around CO2, water vapour, and climate change while planet earth travels over millions of years of a climate in a rough balance, weather forecasters collectively still get things spectacularly wrong.

As Pam was forming in the northern Pacific, it's position was rather basic in having Vanuatu in it's sights, but to suggest then that it would come south to smash NZ was a massive stretch.
Notoriously unpredictable, such creations of nature can resemble  almost mythical monsters as their tracks come under the influence of high altitude winds, surface pressure systems,  land masses large and small, sea currents and a truckload of unmeasurable factors that include mere chance.
With over 3000 kms to travel it is not a very large direction bearing between hitting North cape and missing NZ completely yet we have endured a week of breathless news makers predicting another Cyclone Bola.
By all means make early warnings based on possibilities but could we possibly have some perspective.
While farming just north of the junction of SH1 and SH 7 for ten years around the 3/4 time of the 20th century we endured some serious spring rain events always never seen approaching by the weather gurus but always predicted to locals by a narrow stream of cloud across Mt Grey to the west a couple of days out.
Sometimes the more people know the less they understand and when that simple marker appeared to the residents of Waipara as a signal from nature it was a simple leap to believe that sometimes forecasters should just look out the bloody window to see if what they were saying was actually in clear view.

For the poor buggers in Vanuatu it is an unimaginable disaster both personal and communal and while we talk about lesser matters our focus as a neighbour must be how can we help.
We should collectively thank our lucky stars and put our hands into our pockets.

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