Sunday, November 23, 2014

ON ANDREW LITTLE

It is far too early and far too easy to write Andrew Little off as a failure in a long line of Labour Party leader failures ... Cunliffe, Shearer, Goff and, before them, Moore, Palmer and Rowling.

There are a number of reasons for this.    First, and perhaps most importantly, it is difficult for for any Government to win a forth term.   The pendulum effect is well in play and that has to be to Labour's advantage.   Second, and this ties in with the first, it is difficult to see Labour going anywhere but up in the polls.    The 25% Labour scored in the last election probably represents their nadir .   The only question is how far up can they go?   35% and they're in with a real chance.

Then, turning to Little himself.   Dour perhaps and beholden to the Unions maybe (but not sure how much a negative that is in the same way you might argue that National is the voice of Federated Farmers), but certainly pragmatic evidenced by his willingness to dump unpopular policies and hints (only hints mind you) that he might be prepared to turn his back on Labour's 'Old Guard' and promote to the fore the likes of Nash and Davis. That of course could turn out to be a double edged sword and he needs to ensure that those left out in the cold don't turn on him and white ant his leadership as happened with his last two predecessors.  

Perhaps even more interesting will be to see how he manages Labour's relationship with the Greens.

Yes, Little lost New Plymouth big time in 2011 and bigger time in 2014 but it's now a whole new ball game. Will he be seen as a break from the past and a genuine gamechanger?   The next few months will be interesting. If he can bat through the early overs and is not 'run out' by his own side then I suspect he might turn out to be a formidable opponent to both John Key and National.    

  



8 comments:

Barry said...

I wouldn't go near Davis if I were him. Davis comes across as considering himself to be a Maori to the exclusion of everything else.

JC said...

His best way forward is to develop a love of whisky and late nights plus an affection for seafood and racehorses.

JC

Psycho Milt said...

Second, and this ties in with the first, it is difficult to see Labour going anywhere but up in the polls.

I wish I felt such confidence! On the face of it, there's nothing about this latest leadership contest to lead one to an expectation of increasing support - the candidates were mostly uninspiring and the problems that wrecked the last two leaders' chances are still present.

...he might be prepared to turn his back on Labour's 'Old Guard' and promote to the fore the likes of Nash and Davis.

If we were talking about National, that would be a good idea - Nash and Davis are arrogant, ambitious and focused on increasing their electorate vote, so they'd fit in well. But Labour needs candidates who understand that the party vote is the only thing that counts. These two show no sign of understanding that at all, in fact Davis put winning his electorate way ahead of the party vote - Labour needs as few candidates like that as it can get.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Milt you have your jaundiced eye in today.

Davis campaigned for the electorate vote in order to oust Harawira. The 'party' of the day, to which you accuse him of disloyalty, clearly had done a dirty deal with Harawira and did its best to ensure Davis did not win.

It is that party which Little needs to destroy and, like the vet, I suspect he is the one person who may be able todo it.

Judge Holden said...

"His best way forward is to develop a love of whisky and late nights plus an affection for seafood and racehorses."

You mean the way Key was a few months back? For him corruption and lying are to be condemned when it's politically convenient, otherwise meh.

The Veteran said...

Gueez Mr Holden ... your fixation with the Prime Minister is unhealthy. Have to wonder if you might be one of the 'other' forty on the watch list.

And all this in response to a post which suggested that Andrew Little deserved some respect.

Note to myself ... never ever do this again.

Psycho Milt said...

Davis campaigned for the electorate vote in order to oust Harawira.

Well, yes, exactly. From the perspective of the National Party, Davis did an awesome job, as witnessed by the resounding cheers for him at National Party HQ on election night. Thing is though, he's meant to be a Labour MP - Labour doesn't need MPs who are great for National.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Milt. The poor bastards haven't got any who are good for LABOUR!