Tuesday, September 16, 2014

Hone Harawira will win TTT

And it will not be close, in fact he will increase his majority by a few thousand votes.
I would love for this not to be true.
If he loses then Internet Mana will not be in parliament and the thought of Rosa Klebb having to go away and lick her wounds is an exciting prospect.
But they will not lose.
A poll by Maori TV last night claims Kelvin is within 1 point. This poll is a nonsense.
Everything I know about the electorate in the North tells me this. Young Maori in Whangerai and further north just do not have landlines. They cannot be polled. My experience of dealing with around 150 mainly Maori families over the last year demonstrates clearly that as well as not having land lines most of them cannot seem to keep the same mobile number for more than three months. Polling these people would be like trying to herd cats.
The money that has been spread around to get out the vote and the sheer number of people working the campaign for him with signage, t shirts, placards and painted cars is amazing. The local facebook pages are riddled with his supporters. Kelvin is sadly the right man at the wrong time. He started late, is unsupported and underfunded.
I say sadly because if he did win it would deny one of the head office nobodies at the top of the Labour list another turn at the trough.
Maori were 46000 of the 151000 counted in the census before last up here. A strong, competent, honest and trustworthy member of parliament representing them is vital for everybody in the north. They are not going to get that with Hone.
Ngapuhi will never stop squabbling amongst themselves long enough to collect their settlement money while the Harawira family hold sway.

9 comments:

Angry Tory said...

Kevin is out of parliament - but just like Shane Jones, I'm sure he will be usefully employed in a senior public role in the forthcoming National+ACT+Conservative government.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

AT

You talking about Kevin Rudd?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Barnsley

You mount some solid argument for your case but don't forget the electorate comprises a lot more than 'the far North.'

I suspect Mr Davis will give him a good run for his money. Maori whose fathers and uncles fought the Germans in North Africa and Italy will not put up with Harawira's sell out to the fat Nazi from Coatesville. Especially after last night woeful performance.

Barnsley Bill said...

Last election the polling was very similar. HH on 41 Lab 40. On election night he won 49-40
This time it will be bigger.
Last time he did not have somebody elses money to mount a big campaign. This time he has.
The promises being made up here are frankly ridiculous. The locals are lapping it up with dreams of parties at the mansion, helicopter rides, free ipads, free internet, dole set at the living wage. I have heard some crazy shit over the last month.

Barnsley Bill said...

And when I say up here I mean from Bunnings in Whangerai right upto the tip.

J Bloggs said...

AS someone who lives in the Te Tai Tokerau electorate, this is the first time I've ever wished I could be on the Maori Roll, in order to be able to vote for Kelvin.

Is it too late to change at this point??

Angry Tory said...

Fiinkensein - sorry, Kelvin.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

AT

Thanks. He a cuzzie, you know.

Ashley said...

Here's a prediction (assuming the "internet-mana party" are in parliament):
Within 6-12mths of the election the internet-mana party will split.
I wouldn't be surprised if Hone & "the Fat Slug" already have this arranged (though they may not tell Laila).
Its a pity Key & Cunliffe hadn't worked together ( -yeah, seriously!) to formulate a new law which meant that any groups that combined like this to form a party just to get elected, and then split up within, say, 12months of election, are automatically OUT of parliament. Maybe their seats could be divided between major parties ... or given to the smallest (elected) party .... ?

Thoughts ? ? ?