Sunday, August 10, 2014

Let's cut the crap

There is so much rubbish being said and written about the "nod nod, wink wink" deals National has done in Epsom that the truth gets left behind.  So here it is.

In 2005, when Act first won the seat, National campaigned against Rodney Hide.  They wrote letters to their supporters and members saying they should vote for Richard Worth.  They even asked Don Brash to sign a letter to the electorate on the same issue.  But he refused.  Act had to bring in volunteers from every part of Auckland; anyone who was a friend of a friend etc, just to knock on doors, and deliver letters and pamphlets to ensure the party survived.  Act worked extraordinarily hard to win the seat.  There were no gifts from National, in fact to the contrary.  Much of this support was ingrained anyway.  Rodney Hide had run good campaigns in the seat since 1999, and the seat holds the record in Act circles for party votes won - 22% I think - when John Boscawen stood there.  In short, Act won the seat fair and square and with National campaigning against it.

In 2008, Rodney Hide's super work in the electorate ensured an increase in majority to nearly 13,000.  He won every polling booth, including those in Green territory.  Indeed, in one booth National (Richard Worth) came third to Hide and then Keith Locke.  So, Hide won votes across the broad spectrum.  And that's because he was a bloody good MP.  Act won the seat fair and square.

In 2011, there was an accommodation, and Act and National probably needed it.  But Banks still won reasonably comfortably.

Today's Colmar Brunton poll is incredibly overwhelming.  Epsom is practically won now for Act.  David Seymour has 32% on a straight head-to-head race.  In other words, without any endorsement or accommodation, he is only 10 points (or so) behind.  He can win this seat on his merits.  When the tactical message arrives, he is so far ahead that daylight is second.  He has done this through good old fashioned door knocking; letter delivering and effective communication.

What he hasn't done is enter the race 5 weeks out with a slingshot in a gunfight claiming the race is over so everybody else should pack up and go home.  One party has done that, and they are at 4%.

Nuff said.




4 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Quite so, Nick

The electorte to watch is Te Tai Tokerau.

Lindsay Mitchell said...

It's great to see people like Rodney still believing in what the party stands for. So do I.

James Stephenson said...

I very much doubt I'm the only Party Vote that drifted away due to the Brash / Banks cock-up which is returning this time either.

There'll be a minimum of two ACT MPs in the next Parliament.

gravedodger said...

Good factual summation of the history Nick.
IMO the rather sad intrusion of Key last time was very costly particularly in the loss of vote to the Dwarf and subsequently in the total Nat party vote.