Wednesday, July 16, 2014


for Labour that is with the latest Roy Morgan Poll (the one all the true Labourites swear by as 'their' poll) showing their Party dropping down 4.5% to just 23.5%, their lowest since November 2011 .... and National up 3% to 51% .

Translated into seats that gives National 61 seats, enough to govern alone (baring any overhang).   When you add in ACT and United Future (assuming they retain their two seats) you have the makings of stable government without the need to go cap in hand to either the Maori Party or the Conservative flakes. 

The Greens are back up 3% to 15% and appear to have clawed back votes both from Labour and  Internet/Mana.  Winston First is back in the frame too at 6% proving that the 'mild' winter hasn't had much effect on their voting demographic.

Also of note is that the Government Confidence Rating has increased to 65.5% compared with just 23% who have it that NZL is heading in the wrong direction.     It appears from those numbers that a substantial number of centre/left voters also support the Government's direction.  

Big call but what chance now that Norman/Turei will become the joint Leaders of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition?


Anonymous said...

Like 1993 in Canada, when Canada's "Progressive Conservatives" (their version of Labour) went from 43% to 16% overnight.

A more useful precedent is Scotland, where the (Scottish) National Party has a majority government under their version of MMP.

They said a majority government could never happen in Scotland; the said the same in NZ --- and in both countries, it is National that has (or that will) prove the point.

And the final fact that always bears repeating: in NZ, and indeed in any Commonwealth country that's gone to MMP or something like it: there is absolutely no precedent for the largest party not leading government.

German and Scandinavian precedents do not apply to NZ: rather we look to England (still FPP), but Wales, Scotland & Northern Ireland all are common law, Commonwealth countries --- and there is no precedent in any of those countries for the largest party not to lead government.

The Veteran said...

Just to make it clear. I don't think the Maori Party will win an electorate seat. The resources now available to Hone's mob suggest they will 'buy' them.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

For some time now I have been picking Norman as the next opposition leader.