Sunday, July 20, 2014


on the latest Herald Digipoll with Labour dropping to a fifteen year low.

National 54.9 (up 4.5 points since June)
Labour 26.5 (down 4)
Greens 9.9 (down 0.8)
NZ First 4.6 (up 1)
Internet Mana 2.2 (up 0.8)
Conservatives 1.2 (down 0.3)
Maori Party 0.5 (down 0.3)
Act 0 (down 0.7)
United Future 0 (down 0.1)
Legalise Cannabis 0.1 (up 0.1

The poll of 750 decided voters was taken over the period 10-17 July.   Undecided voters were 11.5%.   It has an moe of +/- 3.6%.


gravedodger said...

Gimme back my 3.6%.
It saves Winston first and Laila and almost gets Col over the line.

Gee whiz with that and all the undecided Mr c is in and the ski trip worked out well.

Hang on Mr McPherson comes back to haunt me, Mr c, xxxx and Jade cannot have half the oranges because that nasty Mr Key already has fifty six and being a greedy bugger he wont share, an ther's only a hundred and twenty an that bitch Rankin is a swinger who H1 shit on a few years ago, bugger, bugger, bugger.

Its just not fair, think I will stay here in Qtown another week.
It is still a secret Grant tell me it is, and wher's bloody Parker, whaddya mean talking to Joyce.

Of course he is on the list couldnt win a lemon playing scrabble with a toddler.
Whaddya mean we dont get any Listers in what about Clay youkno the dwarf on our team.

"was zum teufel"

The Veteran said...


Hands up all who vote that GD's blood is for bottling.

Anonymous said...

Good stuff!

Good to see the Melons under 10 percent. Long may that continue.

Angry Tory said...

Still a long way to get down to zero - and quite a long way to exceed Bill English's record for National.

The most important things for National voters to do now are:
- vote National in the electorates
- choose between Conservative & ACT in the party vote
- tell any pollsters they're voting Green

The Veteran said...

Angry Tory ... see you're still refusing to answer the question as to why any National voter should vote for Craig's mob when they said publicly at the weekend that they could do a deal with Labour.

Your silence is deafening.

Angry Tory said...

First - I continue to maintain that a National led government can be the only outcome of this election. In spite of what leftist etc say, there is absolutely no precedent in NZ or in other Commonwealth countries that have MMP or something like it for the government to be a coalition of the losers. There just isn't. National majority government, National minority government, National-led coalition government, or even a grand coalition (National-Labour) all have constitutional precedent. A coalition of the losers does not. The most likely outcome remains a National majority government, as in Scotland today.

Second - Craig (like Winston, like UF, like ACT at one point, and like the Greens would were they actually an environmental party instead of attempting to replace Labour) - any third party must be able to "swing both ways". It's just politics. if Labour were on 43% and needed another few percent, good on Craig for getting into the running. But they're not.

Third - so the question then becomes: what kind of National-led government do we want? Do we want a government that keeps every single one of Hellen Clark's welfare policies, and is even more generous - but with absolutely none of Michael Cullen's restraint? Key & English borrowed SIXTY BILLION dollars and haven't managed to pay back a single cent yet. They've spent more on welfare, more on health, more on education, more every year than Hellen ever did! In the last two terms, National signed on to gay marriage, UNDRIP, state funded Islamic schools, not to mention treaty settlements, far more than Helen & co ever did.

If you're happy with a government to the left of Clark & co, fine, vote National. If not, find someone who won't tolerate that sort of leftism.

and if you really, really, just hate Labour & unions, right now the best way to get a National government and to wipe out Labour is to vote Green.

gravedodger said...

What could possibly go wrong?

AT I abandoned political purity as an electable meme when Bolger crapped on Richardson, no it possibly had a genesis in Lange's Cuppa tea.
MMP has widened the gulf between desire and achieve.

Pragmatism rules and Key avoiding electoral defeat has been a sometimes frustrating exercise for me even if less than for you yet he has so far been successful.

Total jobs are up, Business confidence is up, benefit levels are at least not ramping up, we are on a track where Primary production, manufacturing, mining (sans coal)growing, the greens and their Green usurpers are stable around 10/12%.
Yes Borrowing is eyewatering but as with the big debate (being lost by Abbott) about sustainable vs damaging still open over the ditch Key and English although annoying you and me both have been pretty universally accepted internationally.

I do not advocate for voters to shun Craig I just wish he could accept badly needed political management advice.
What he achieved three years ago was impressive but he has got little advance since and this time around shows no ability to accept such advice that is clearly needed.
First up does he want to be seen to be Conservative or conservative, does he want to support and alter within the realms of his vote share National or Labour and despite what many detractors claim there is a gulf between red and blue. We have heard much about CC's views on National but apart from a, for me anyway, totally oxymoronic stance on government involvement in commercial business, little comment on his stance on the shambolic oft changing ersatz policy from the NZLP eg Capital gains tax with no offsetting tax reduction.

Colin Craig may have a profile in Jaffaland but down here in the engine room he just does not register and that is a problem for all but the Blue team #key.
I mean does that cringeworthy effort in the long grass represent anything, ffs

The Veteran said...

Angry Tory ... you've still not answered the question.

Yes, National borrowed $60b dollars and you still refuse to acknowledge the GFC and the two ChCh earthquakes. Your solution ....

Note also your gripe about National spending on education ... seems they need to when 'your' CEO is found wanting on basic maths.

TY too for your diatribe against State funded Islamic Schools. What about Catholic Schools; Exclusive Brethren Schools; Montessori Schools ... so your mob don't do freedom of thought or religion either.

The Christian Coalition comprised some good people and a lot of flakes (and other things).
Seems they have morphed/migrated into the Conservatives. You're not Mr Capill by any chance?

p.s. Labour doesn't need to be on 43% to form a Govt. 30% and the Greens on 14% and Mana/Internet on 2% ... and they're there with help from their mate CC.

Angry Tory said...

Yes, National borrowed $60b dollars and you still refuse to acknowledge the GFC and the two ChCh earthquakes. Your solution ....

"never to let a crisis go to waste"

I'm sure the Great Communicator (NZ version) could have argued we all need to make sacrifices, all need to pull together, dropped benefit rates by say 25% across the board (including Super), required anyone earning over 50,000 to pay for state schools & hospitals (or go private).

NZ could have been a very different place - instead of essentially the same as when Hellen was defeated.

Labour doesn't need to be on 43% to form a Govt

OK. Go back and read my first point very carefully. There is no precedent for a "coalition of the losers" in any Commonwealth country. There just isn't. Of course CCCP must not support Labour+Greens+NZF+whoever government vs National on 45%+ --- to do so would be unconstitutional and such a government should be illegitimate.

The Veteran said...

Angry Tory ... it may have escaped your notice but no other Commonwealth country has been stupid enough to to adopt MMP and under MMP anything, but anything is possible.

BTW I'm still in total awe of your suggestion in response to my MH 17 post that, if Reagan had been in charge, the US would have invaded Russia to put things right.

Do you have any comprehension as to how stupid you appear saying that .... with friends like you Craig doesn't need any enemies .... reason 789 not to vote Conservative.

Angry Tory said...

Scotland. And yes - majority National government in Scotland today.

The Veteran said...

Stupid Tory ... in Scotland the SNP (a slightly wackier version of Laboour) has 65 out of the 129 seats seats in their Parliament ... what's your point?

And developing your argument, what about across the ditch in 2010 ... Primary vote totals were:

Labour - 4,711,363 = 72 seats
Coalition - 5,365,528 = 72 seats

and who formed the Govt?

I repeat. National here could score 45% of the vote only to have Labour form the next Government in coalition with the Greens/Winston First/Mana-Internet and the Conservatives (who have said they could do a deal with Labour).

And you're asking 'real' Tory voters to vote CCCP ... weird.