Saturday, May 10, 2014

Green reasoning on crime reduction

I've been a little naughty.  I've joined Twitter.  And just this morning had this exchange with Julie-Anne Genter of the Green Party:
  1. one of most robust statistical patterns known is crime rates tend to go up w rising economic inequality
    But NZ crime rate is falling and you are claiming inequality is rising in NZ.
  3. there are other contributing factors - like lead - which is thankfully decreasing.
  4. Lead?Falling crime is because of a reduction in a metal?You've lost me.
She then sent me this link, and I was very polite and thanked her and said I would read it, which I have.

It's quite long and so I won't produce any snippets, but I do encourage you all to have a read and see for yourself why the Green Party think a reduction in lead in petrol is a cause of crime reduction in NZ, and why to the Greens, Correlation = Causation.


JC said...

I'm confident in the science that lead is bad for humans and one health issue could be a rise in crime, particularly in crowded cities with not much wind. Thats hardly the case in an underpopulated country in the Sth Pacific in the path of the Roaring Forties.. but its indeed a consideration.

But I'd give a hell of a lot more attention to a median age of about 27 years in 1976 compared to 38 now, ie, crime is a feature of the young and dumb but dies down with increasing age and education.

Also, crime stats used to include motoring offences way back but don't now, was this considered. Too, dope smoking isn't criminalised to the same extent now and policing and imprisionment has changed as well.

In short I'm quite happy to accept a reduction in crime from the progressive elimination of lead in the environment but I'm confident I could draw some right pretty graphs showing strong correlationships with crime and increasing median age and with the decriminalisation of all or in part of some forms of former crime.


Edward the Confessor said...

The lead theory has some validity. The correlation is very strong across multiple jurisdictions and time periods (which puts pay to JC's squawking about median age).

It's certainly more plausible than the hang 'em high or stuff em in a private prison forever nonsense being proffered by the Act Party. That you dismiss it so casually says more about you than anything else, Kearney.

Anonymous said...

Its funny that lead doesn't seem to be a feature in three strikes and you're out. Even the supposed brain damaged seem to wake up when the consequences of being an arsehole are bad enough.


Paulus said...

Serves you right for joining Twitter (or Facebook).

Edward the Confessor said...

Yeah, Key says Twitter baaad, so Paulus think so too.

Anonymous said...

Lead stunts and infantilizes the brain.

I know this is so, as we have a prime example posting on this site.

Aint that so Eddie!

Mrs Danvers

Edward the Confessor said...

The world is full of examples of idiocy to the point of retardation, poor old man Danvers, Anne Tolley, but it's unclear whether it results from lead poisoning or inbreeding.