Saturday, February 15, 2014

A NASTY SET OF NUMBERS - FOR LABOUR

Just out is the latest Fairfex Media-Ipsos poll which has National at 49.4% and Labour at 31.8% (down 1.8%) and the Greens at 10%.   Winston First is polling 3.6%, the Conservatives 2% and crim.com a big 'fat' zero.

On these figures National is projected to have a ten seat lead over the Labour and Greens combined  and easily enough to govern alone before the minor parties are taken into account.

Perhaps even more importantly, 63.7% of respondents thought the country was heading in the right economic direction.

The poll surveyed 1018 voters and was taken between 8-10 February (i.e before the crim.com brouhaha).    It has an margin of error of 3%. 

Will have kinda ruined Mr Cunliffe's mourning.

15 comments:

Paulus said...

It is a great poll, but overlooks the worst part of our system - its MMP.

Watcher said...

"Will have kinda ruined Mr Cunliffe's mourning."

Who died?

The Veteran said...

Gueez Watcher ... s l o w

pdm said...

Since I first saw the results of this poll I have been pondering the following:

1. Is it an endorsement of National and John Key or
2. Is it an indication of the huge distrust of Cunliffe, Labour and Greens.

Over the course of the day I have come to the conclusion that it is the latter.

Grant McKenna said...

It’s a rogue poll.
Labour supporters don’t have landlines, so aren't canvassed.
The only poll that counts is on election day.
The margin of error is hiding the shift to Labour.
It isn't what I'm hearing as I talk to people.
Etc, etc, etc.

Also: David Cunliffe is the best Leader of the Opposition New Zealand has had for a long time, and I hope that he keeps the role for many, many, many years to come.

Judge Holden said...

"but overlooks the worst part of our system - its (sic) MMP."

How does a poll overlook something, my massively retarded chum? And what do you mean? You find the fact that the number of votes you get determines the number of seats you get in the legislature somehow anti-democratic? You must be a tory. Your poor Mum should take you to the playground to tire you out.

The Veteran said...

Holden ... then if MMP is gods gift to creation then pray tell how come the only other country in the world to embrace it is Germany and then, only after it was forced on them by the Allies post WW2?

A Labour/Greens/Mana/Crim.Com/Winston First government would be a disaster for NZL. The good news is that with 65% of Kiwis agreeing that NZL is heading in the 'Right' economic direction, they clearly know it too.

But keep on arguing for the rearrangement of the deck chairs on the good ship Labour .... and keep those OIA requests for information on the dress code for ministerial staff rolling in.

East to see now why Cunliffe's Chief of Staff developed a bad attack of the Shingles.

Angry Tory said...

This poll just reiterates the most important fact about the forthcoming election - a fact that has not changed since 2008 and seems unlikely to change in the near future (say the next ten years)

Any government not lead by National will widely be seen as illegitimate

National is nearly twice the size of Labour. A coalition of the losers would be completely unacceptable to every single taxpayer in NZ (all of whom vote National or ACT!)


Anyone who says otherwise - MSM commentators, newspapers, etc, who says "it's too close to call" is lying, more than that, they are clearly shilling for the left.

Whatever happens in Germany, New Zealand has absolutely no precedent for the largest party not to lead government.

Ask yourself: will Auckland businesses accept a Labour government formed in Wellington on about half the vote of National? Of course not. Frankly I hope Labour tries: I can't think of a better way to finally get rid of MMP and "elections" and actually get some governing arrangements that make sense for ensuring economic progress.

And that doesn't involve Labour, the Greens, Winston, Mana, - or, frankly, any elections where bludgers get to vote, or any parliament or civil service based in Wellington!

Psycho Milt said...

Given that this poll hugely overestimated National's support at the last election, I doubt Labour are crapping themselves. The only real sense in which it's bad news for them is that biased polls can become self-fulfilling prophecy.

A Labour/Greens/Mana/Crim.Com/Winston First government would be a disaster for NZL.

Wouldn't be any too flash. Probably as much of a disaster as a Nat/ACT/United/Maori/Conservative/Winston First one. Perhaps Key should stop trying to gerrymander additional seats out of parties with 0% support.

The good news is that with 65% of Kiwis agreeing that NZL is heading in the 'Right' economic direction, they clearly know it too.

The fact that the country is finally beginnning to recover after stagnating for years following the GFC will benefit the incumbents, true. The media won't pin the years of stagnation on the govt but will give them credit for it eventually ending despite them.

Judge Holden said...

"if MMP is gods gift to creation then pray tell how come the only other country in the world to embrace it is Germany and then, only after it was forced on them by the Allies post WW2?"

How very odd of you to question the allies motives. Germany has outperformed most of them economically and socially every since anyway. Almost all functioning western democracies have similar systems. Even the UK realise they need it, but those benefitting from their current non-democratic electoral system don't want to see change (ie tory fuckwits).

The Veteran said...

Holden .... you said "Almost all functioning western democracies have similar systems"

So, the US, Canada, Australia and the UK aren't functioning western democracies ....

They'll thank you for telling them that.

Watcher said...

I didn't vote for MMP but accepted the result.
Unfortunately it didn't live up to Joe Kiwi's expectations.
i.e. a move to consensus decision making from the destructive money wasting swings and round about the ideologically driven two party FPP.
Of course we forgot it was ruled by politician's and have ended up with the prominence of FPP ideology but with a few baubles thrown to satisfy the minor parties but not the voting public.
In a nutshell that's why so many will opt not to vote in the next election.

Judge Holden said...

"Holden .... you said "Almost all functioning western democracies have similar systems"

So, the US, Canada, Australia and the UK aren't functioning western democracies ...."

The US certainly isn't, the UK and Australia are borderline, and that's not most western democracies. I can do maths, you obviously struggle.

Simon said...

Holden you seem like a normal run of the mill angry moonbat (Edward the sheeple seems to have gone) so I can ask you what do you think about the "25 yr neo-lib agenda" polling nearly 100%?

Judge Holden said...

You're a run of the mill freedummy sociopath, Simon, why don't you tell me?