Sunday, January 26, 2014

NATIONAL AND COALITIONS

The last few days have seen various commentators 'wet' themselves over John Key's supposed u-turn regarding future dealings with Winston First.

The height of silliness was John Armstrong's piece suggesting that National might consider installing Peters as Prime Minister in order to guarantee his support.    John A, whatever medication you are on get it checked out and quickly.   In one column you have managed to blow completely any credibility you had as a political commentator.    Peters has as much chance of becoming PM under National as Hone or Wussel has.     

So, lets start from the point that John Key said that is was extremely unlikely that National could work with a Winston led NZ First and assess the various coalition options for them in descending order..   Can I preface that by acknowledging that in an earlier post I predicted ACT as unlikely to make it back into Parliament.    That prediction was made before John Boscawen threw his hat into the ring for Epsom.   Boscawen is a proven safe pair of hands.    I am assuming he gets the nod.

Coalition options for National (in descending order)

ACT - preferred on the basis that Boscawen gets the nod from Act and acknowledging National would once again have to persuade their core support in Epsom to split their votes.  
United Future - preferred.   Again, National would need to make it happen. 
Conservative - possible.    Unlikely to reach 5% so National would have to gift them a seat.
Maori Party - possible but unlikely.   Likely to be be a weakened force with Flavell suggesting that they had heard the message from their constituency not to go with National.
NZ First - unlikely (unless Winston steps in front of a bus and then they are history anyway).   Not going to get a constituency seat so have to get over the line.   Part of their problem is they are in competition with the Conservatives for the same vote.    Possible they could decline to support both National and Labour and deal with legislation on a case by case basis.   That could result in a true 'minority' government which, by its very nature, would be hamstrung and inherently unstable.
Labour - impossible.   Forget about the nonsense of a so called 'Grand Coalition'.
Greens - impossible.
Mana Party - impossible.
Crim.Com - Won't make it over the 5% and no-one, but no-one, is going to gift 'him' a seat.




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