Sunday, December 1, 2013

IRAN

It appears I am not alone in thinking the deal brokered by US Secretary of State Kerry and the Iranians regarding their nuclear programme bears a striking resemblance to the 1938 Munich Pact which saw British Prime Minister Chamberlain stand on the steps of 10 Downing Street and proclaim "Peace in our Time".

Seems like senior members of Obama's own Party see the agreement as a sell-out.   The link to the story is here.

Time will tell but one thing you can be sure of ... Israel will play the game by its own rules and in its own national interest should things look like turning to custard. 

11 comments:

Pete said...

I think Chamberlain is unfairly maligned by history. He was of the generation that experienced WW1, so naturally he wanted to avoid a repeat of such horrors. As Churchill himself said, better jaw-jaw than war-war. Secondly, Britain didn't have the forces to take a more belligerent approach with Germany in 1938 (except with the Royal Navy). But he couldn't exactly catapult battleships at Berlin.

What he did do was buy time, so when September 1939 rolled around, Britain could field a larger army (conscription began in April that year). In mid 1938 Britain drastically increased its aircraft production.

It's too easy to say a diplomatic agreement is like Munich or a particular politician is an appeaser simply because they seek a diplomatic solution. Circumstances are different. I have no love for the Iranian government, but if we can be assured through a verifiable process that they are not seeking nuclear weapons, then normalisation of relations after nearly 35 years makes sense. There are trading opportunities and money to be made there and hearts and minds to win.

Anonymous said...

Possibly Pete.

However if Chamberlain and the French and come down on hard on Hitler during the mid 30's (which Churchill has mentioned in his writings) and enforced the Treaty of Versailles properly then WW2 need never have happened.

If the French and Brits had marched into Germany in say 1935 then Hitler could have overthrown with the loss of minimal life.

However the peaceniks fought against this and war was the result.

Jimmie

The Veteran said...

Pete ... I guess it all depends on your view of how serious Iran is in respect of their stated goal to destroy Israel.

Anonymous said...

When Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union invaded Poland, they were both playing for time. The only thing they asked the Poles was to 'step this way' and get a bullet in the head.
In this instance substitute Israel for Poland. Nobody is asking them to do anything except to shut up and don't make a scene. Obama has offered every muslim nation his greasy hand. They have done worse than spit in it. They despise him, regarding him as a weak joke. He is playing for time to see the end of his term so he can get out golfing more than he is now. Iran s playing for time to get it's economy back and simultaneously acquire nuke strike power. This deal gives them the first part, they'll do the second.
Israel knows it can win any number of wars, but it can only lose one.
The 'four by twos' aren't stupid. Their memories are fresh with the last dictator that wrote and ranted for years about 'eliminating the problem' while all ignored him hoping new concessions would make him go away.
'Never again' to Israel means -- Never. Again.

George

Psycho Milt said...

Time will tell but one thing you can be sure of ... Israel will play the game by its own rules and in its own national interest should things look like turning to custard.

Another thing we can be sure of is that the nutcases running Israel are as dangerous as the nutcases running Iran, if not more so given that they're nuclear armed and packing far greater regular military power than Iran. And they're the ones who are really being pandered to by US presidents of whatever party.

Noel said...

My understanding is that it is a interim deal. Real proof that the process has been worthwhile will not be seen until more substantial negotiations are completed.

Chamberlain claimed "peace in out time". This deal to date doesn't.



The Veteran said...

Noel ... that's not how Kerry and the WH played it.

The Veteran said...

PM ... it matters little whether it is the 'nutcases' (your word) from Likud or Labor running the country. Israel will always be proactive in respect of any perceived military thread and, if push comes to shove, the US will back them, such is the power of the Jewish lobby (backed by Christian evangelicals) and its links with both the Republican and Democrat Parties.

Watcher said...

Veteran said
'...that's not how Kerry,,,played it."

Come on he's a politician.

That breed can beat
Rumpelstiltskin

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Veteran

And likely Saudi Arabia will provide discrete support to Israel in any such effort.

Anonymous said...

Iran - Let anyone make his own reading, but this right is clearly stated in the text of the agreement that Iran can continue its enrichment, and I announce to our people that our enrichment activities will continue as before... the sanctions will be broken. The cracks in the sanctions began last night, and in the future those gaps will be grow.
Hassan Rouhani, President of Iran, via Jason Rezaian at washingtonpost.com