Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Opinion Polls – Chicago Style - Updated

Update 17/10:-

Extortion by the White House wasn't enough, apparently.  They are still complaining about Gallup.

In a memo Monday, it took issue with a Gallup/USA Today survey. Obama pollster Joel Benenson wrote, “The latest Gallup USA Today Battleground survey showing President Obama and Governor Romney tied with women in battleground states (48-48) is an extreme outlier, defying the trends seen in every other battleground and national poll. This result underscores deep flaws in Gallup’s likely voter screen.”
Squeal, squeak, squirm, whine, moan.  Doncha just hate it when your victims don't do EXACTLY what you want?

I can't wait to see how Obama's 'women' vote goes when he finally blames Hillary for Benghazi.  Maybe that's part of Slick Willy's subtle revenge.  You can be sure Hillary will be taking his advice.

Much has been written recently about public media commissioned opinion polls and their reliability or unreliability viz a viz the American presidential election.  Writers have focused on alleged bias for Obama or Romney,  the merit or otherwise of ‘weighting the sample’ for party affiliation according to previous exit polls; the practice of weighting samples to reflect racial or ethnic characteristics, the use of registered voters versus likely voters and so on.

Here, just to keep our Obamatrols happy, as they sink into chronic bitter pre-defeat depression,  is a lovely example of how the polls really work.

Gallup has been around almost since polling started in the 1940s and to my knowledge is not affiliated with any media organisation.  It is independent..  The company is probably the best known and most respected pollster in the business.  Or it was until Obama got hold of it.

A couple of months ago it was reported that the Whitehouse had complained to Gallup about the methodology used in its presidential polling. Clearly Obama’s men have vast experience in the intricacies of polling methods and are more experienced than a company which has been at it for fifty years or so.

The Nazis Obamabots couldn’t believe their guy was not doing a whole lot better after they had just spent two hundred million dollars publicly defaming Governor Romney.  They demanded Gallup attend a meeting and explain why it should not change its sampling methods.  Apparently Gallup declined this kind invitation and lo and behold, within days, the nice man Himler Holder at the Gestapo Department of Justice had initiated a major and potentially debilitating legal action against the Gallup organization.

Yep.  That’s the way things are done in Chicago.  “Gee, this is a nice business you have here!!!”

The company caved in.

About a month ago they changed their sampling formula, doing so without any public notification.  The moved to sample significantly more registered democrats and less whites.  If not for the probing of expert investigative journalists nobody would have known their polls had now been rigged in favour of Obama.

Alan Abramowitz of Huffington Post and The Democratic Strategist noticed that Gallup has increased its share of nonwhites from 27 percent the week of the convention to 32 percent last week, a nearly 20 percent boost. In other words, Gallup seemed to have tweaked its methodology with just weeks to go until Election Day to reflect the criticism that has come from the left.

If you go to the Gallop link and look at the trend lines you can see when it happened.  About three weeks ago.  Just in time to persuade a gullible public that Obama is doing about three percentage points better than he really is doing.  Such is the self delusion practiced by the Left.

Neat eh?

So redraw the lines giving Mr Obama three points less than the graph shows and you’ll get a pretty clear picture of where it’s at right now.  It's very easy to see where the fix went in.  Second week in September.

Meanwhile Gallup has allowed its reputation to be trashed and thereby has cost itself far more than any potential litigation may have done.


Wes said...

Your sources are even crazier than you are. I wouldn't have thought that possible. You're going to have to do better than this with your smears. This one's way too tame. Now where are Mitt's tax returns?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Is that all you've got? Tired old tax returns in which no one is the least bit interested?

Time for your next prozac, isn't it?

Wes said...

He's still hiding them isn't he? All you've got is some crank conspiracy theory about polling methodology. Very very disappointing given how long you've been hiding.

Blair said...

Wes - do try to keep up. He released them. Turns out he pays 13% of his very large income in tax, and then gives 30% more away - half to his church and half to charities. Nobody cares. Even the Commiecrats have stopped talking about it. You obviously need to get back in the loop for some fresh talking points. I believe this week's ones are that Romney flip flops, and... uh... something about abortion. Keep trying.

Wes said...

"He released them."

A lie. He released the last two years when he knew he was running for president. He's hiding the rest of them. Keep up.

Anonymous said...

Ok Wes, lets make a bargain. We hassle Romney to release his tax returns for the last 10 years (his accountant has provided audit information) and you hassle Obama about his College records, Social security card, the Fast & Furious documents, What he knew about the attack in Lybia and when he knew it.

Michael in Nelson

Wes said...

No Michael, you can do that, and while you're about it why don't you hassle Romney about being unemployed for the past five years, running away to France to dodge the draft, and the woman he killed when he was there? Hmmm?

Anonymous said...

Thank you Wes, I knew you didn't have the balls to back up your "beliefs". Typical troll. No need to acknowledge your existence from here forward.

M in N

KG said...

At least Wes has Obot microcephalic entertainment value....
Tying his shoelaces must be a challenge for him though.45

Wes said...

Whatever KG. You're so monstrously retarded you actually believe Obama was born in Kenya. Nonetheless, other than your gay relationship with Oswald Bastable, which is kind of sweet, you being a mong is the most pleasant thing about you.