Sunday, August 12, 2012

Olympics predictions

UPDATE:

Not a bad stab at it - I'll take Adolf's title of Chief Predictor at this rate.

Swimming - no medals and Lauren Boyle did very well.

Rowing - a stack of medals, as predicted.

Equestrian - we just snuck home; I was a little out there.

Canoeing - I said one medal, possibly Gold, and indeed that's what happened.

Track & Field - I said two medals, but we got only one medal to Adams.  Farquhar just missed out on the top 8 and the Willis had one of those days.

Cycling - BMX, Track and Road - yep, Walker got Silver.  I missed out Linda Vilhelmsen who performed superbly to come fourth and the surprise was Van Velthoven - 2 medals as predicted.

Sailing - I predicted 2 medals and that was the correct one.

Triathlon - I thought we'd pick up a medal here, but sadly not.  The races were not run to our liking.

Hockey - as I predicted, close but no cigar for the ladies
 I predicted an overall medal tally of 12 medals, including 4 Golds.  We got 13, including 5 Gold.

My next sporting prediction?  The winner of the mens marathon to be run overnight is going to be a skinny black man.



I'll have a little stab at predicting how we'll go at the Olympics which kick off tonight.

Swimming

I doubt we'll medal.  The dark horse could be one of the relay teams, and I expect Lauren Boyle to do well.  There could be plenty of PBs, but the competition is so tough and we don't have a Burmester or a Loader to pull one out of the bag.  Prediction: no medals.

Rowing

Stacks of medals.  The mens pair should win, and Mahe Drysdale should easily medal.  Some of the other crews will undoubtedly come close, including the womens pair.  Prediction: 4 medals.

Equestrian

The venue and other factors should suit us.  Most of our team has performed here for years.  An individual medal is a possibility as is a team medal.  Prediction: we'll just miss out.

Canoeing

Lisa Carrington is the world champion, and seems to be a super athlete.  Ben Fouhy seems to have put his demons behind him and has the ability to pe on the podium, as do Steven Ferguson and Darryl Fitzgerald. Prediction: one medal, possibly Gold.

Track & Field

We should have a good meet.  Valerie Adams is a hot shot for Gold.  Nick Willis is a definite medal chance.  The dark horses could be Kimberley Smith and javelin thrower, Stuart Farquhar.  Prediction: 2 medals and a top five for Farquhar.

Cycling - BMX, Track and Road

Sarah Walker had a disappointing Beijing Olympics and should medal int he BMX.  Greg Henderson and Jack Bauer should perform well in the road race, but a medal would be a huge shock.  On the track, we should do very well.  Jo Kiesanowski and Alison Shanks are probably the most likely females; and some men could go very close too.  Prediction: 2 medals.

Sailing

No idea really.  Jon-Paul Tobin is maybe our bext chance in the boardsail.  Prediction: 2 medals.

Triathlon

This is something I know a lot about.  Realistically, the mens race is going to be very tough.  The Brownlee brothers are almost looking unbeatable.  It could be an England 1, 2.  Then there are others such as Stefan Justus, Richard Murray from South Africa and Javier Gomez, who missed out in Beijing.  Bevan Docherty is our best chance because he is smart and tough.  Much will depend on how the race is run.  Team tactics will be very important.  Prediction: no medals but possibly 2 in top 10.  That could be a combination of any of our three athletes (Docherty, Gemmell & Sissons) - they are all that good.

The women's race is similar.  Nicola Spirig is looking unbeatable if it goes down to a sprint, which is looking very likely as many ITU races have finished that way this year.  Andrew Hewitt can race with the best of them, but Helen Jenkins from England will be spurred on by the home crowd.  Then there is Emma Moffatt and Erin Densham from Australia.  But we have a good team. No, a very good team.  Kate McIlroy is in some great form with an 8th place in a sprint race last week.  And Nicky Samuels can swim & bike with the best in the world.  I expect Hewitt to be in the top 5 with a kilometre or so to go on the run.  From there, anything can happen.  McIlroy and/or Samuels could also be there.  Prediction: one medal.

Hockey

Close, but no cigar for both teams.
 
Overall medal tally: 12 medals, including 4 Golds.    


2 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Very brave. Well done.

Now, let's wait and see.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

We waited and we saw.

We congratulate the predictor.

I'm still laughing at Australia's haul of 'nearly golds.'

Their reporters are so over the top during an event and so banal when interviewing their ravished heroes.