Sunday, April 1, 2012

Pundit Confounded

hattip Kiwiblog

Colmar Brunton puts National up by 1%.

51% party vote.

  • National 51.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 1% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 1% (NC)
  • NZ First 3% (-1.2%)
  • Conservative 1% (-1.4%)

So it's 'good night Winston and John Armstrong will need to find himself a new theme.


Allan said...

The left leaning TV 1 reporters looked very put out when they had to report this tonight. Cant wait to see how National Radio and Granny Herald try and spin this as well. Finally NZ voters might be showing common sense at last.

Anonymous said...

The conservatives are going to be a force by the look of it.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

I'll be interested to see how Roy Morgan pans out tomorrow.

Anonymous said...

"Finally NZ voters might be showing common sense at last."

It's true that support for Labour and the Greens is up by double the Nats' increase and Act and the Conservatives have disappeared, so you may be right Allen.

Psycho Milt said...

Good night Winston? When will people learn to stop saying that?

The Veteran said...

PM has it about right. There is a small rump of quite demented people who believe that Winston is the Messiah or alternatively, will support him just to stick it up to the political establishment.

The only way to kill him off will be to drive a wooden stake through his heart but even then elements of Grey Power will have it that he is alive and well and living in Taihape to be found every night in the saloon bar of the Gretna holding forth to an enthralled bunch of zimmer framers.

JC said...

"Good night Winston? When will people learn to stop saying that?"

The same applies to Key and National these last 4-5 years.

The public will indeed punish Key and co for this sort of bungle, but only when it believes there is a credible alternative Govt.

Last week, when I watched Mallard in the House, and Russel deliberately twisting things later.. I got the feeling they were reaching too far on Collins and Key and missed the central point of a massive security breech.. a security problem that appears to go back many years.


Mort said...

talking of another confounded pundit... Klarkenista propoagandist Rod Oram goes off on one today in the SST. Aparantly mining/ drillings all a ruse to get more cows...
the man is one constant stream bull puckey, and I only read his articles these days to see how deluded one can get and still be paid for it, or to find the next wave in contrarian investment ideas

Paulus said...

Don't tell the so called MSM - its a rogue poll you know.
Herald almost forgot it and ballsed it up anyway to obscurity.

Mort said...

What is the usual timeframe that TVNZ takes before they do their first poll of the year?
If its usually done within the first 2 months, why was this one delayed until the first real speed bumps faced by the Keyster et al for the ear eventuated? Are TVNZ guilty of trying to massage news and opinion again?
The irony of course has to be that they got egg on their faces this time around.

Johnno said...

@Mort, I would guess a lack of money would have a whole lot to do with it, as would not having a political editor to push it along, nor a Head of News to pay for it.

alwyn said...

Allan @7.05pm
I didn't see TV last night but I had heard they were broadcasting Poll results.
I was able to predict that National had gone up this morning when Morning Report never mentioned it between 6.00 and 8.00am.
I am sure that if it had been Labour up 3% and National down 3% it would have led the news and been reported ad nauseum all morning.