Saturday, March 17, 2012

THE RACE FOR THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATION


I have just finished a detailed analysis of the remaining Republican Primary contests.  It is very difficult now to see Romney loosing the nomination.    Most of the delegates in the remaining Primaries are elected on a proportional basis and Romney will at least pick up one-third of delegates in most Sates while in a couple of big ones (California and New York) he is projected to win handsomely.

And all this because of the incredible ego of Newt Gingrich and his inability to face reality which has him splitting the 'conservative' vote allowing Romney to come through the middle.    He might have not figured it out but it is clear from the results in States you would expect to be favourable to him (as a good ole Southern boy) a substantial majority of Republicans have no truck with a candidate who has the morals of a stoat and possesses a code of ethics that make Winston Peters look like Mother Teresa.   By staying in the race he certainly looks like stuffing it well and truly for Rick Santorum.

So where does that leave Romney head to head with Obama?    To my mind the contest will hinge (for Romney) on two important factors .........

#1  Will he manage to energise the Republican Right including the Evangelical Right who traditionally provide the 'feet on the ground' to run an effective campaign?     Answer .... perhaps maybe (but not enthusiastically).  

#2   Will his candidacy have wide appeal to Independents (that amorphous middle ground where elections are made and lost)?    Answer .... difficult to determine; some will be suspicious of his wealth, some of his Religion and some that he is Obama lite.    His challenge will be to turn these 'negatives' into 'positives'.   

On balance I think Romney will have a hard road to hoe made more difficult by a generally antagonistic MSM and a President with a huge and expanding war-chest per courtesy of George Soros et al.    

3 comments:

Blair said...

I think you are quite wrong about Romney being the presumptive winner. He is actually in trouble. Romney may win Illinois, and possibly NY and California, but there are a lot of states in between that Santorum will pick up. It's entirely possible that Santorum will prevent him getting the numbers.

Gingrich staying in the race actually helps in this regard, because polls show that half of his voters actually back Romney as their second choice. If he stays in, he will help Santorum win more delegates, not less - and the Gingrich delegates can then be used to stop Romney.

It will be an interesting three months from here...

The Veteran said...

Blair ... what I am saying is that on the modelling I have done with Romney picking up a minimum of 30% of delegates in all States and a much higher % in many it is difficult to see him not making it over the line.

If, as you said, Gingrich is helping Santorum by staying in then why is the Santorum camp pushing for him (Gingrich) to get out?

Finally. the Obama campaign has, in the last 48 hours, sigtnalled their campaigtn strategy is focused on a Obama/Romney contest.

But, as you said, goana be an interesting couple of months.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

What happens if Romney has a heart attack and karks it a couple of days after the convention?

Is there a Vice Candidate?