National will win 49% of the vote but, once the 'wasted vote' is factored in, that will take it over the magic 50%. National will retain New Plymouth.
Labour will poll in the high 20s. Labour will pick up West Coast Tasman.
Greens will come in at about 12%.
Winston First will make it over the 5% (just). This will mirror, in a small way, the 2002 result when the collapse in National support saw many punters desert that Party and go to NZF. The collapse in the Labour vote this time round will produce the same result.
Conservatives. Won't win Rodney (but will poll well). Nationally they will score 2-3% wasted votes.
ACT. Hurts me to say this but they will loose Epsom. Just why they allowed Brash to bulldoze them into picking Banks is beyond me. Any other of their 'quality' candidates would be a shoe in. ACT votes go into the wasted pile.
United Future. Dunne will squeak in just, producing a overhang (which won't be helpful). His saving grace is that he is acknowledged to be a good electorate MP.
Maori Party. Retains their four electorate seats
Mana Party. Retains Te Tai Tokerau and Hone brings Annette Sykes with him. Proxy votes that Labour doesn't need.
The sun will still come up on Sunday (excuse pun).