Friday, November 25, 2011

PREDICTIONS - WILL I OR WON'T I

Not worth the paper they are printed on but what the hell. Here goes.

National will win 49% of the vote but, once the 'wasted vote' is factored in, that will take it over the magic 50%. National will retain New Plymouth.

Labour will poll in the high 20s. Labour will pick up West Coast Tasman.

Greens will come in at about 12%.

Winston First will make it over the 5% (just). This will mirror, in a small way, the 2002 result when the collapse in National support saw many punters desert that Party and go to NZF. The collapse in the Labour vote this time round will produce the same result.

Conservatives. Won't win Rodney (but will poll well). Nationally they will score 2-3% wasted votes.

ACT. Hurts me to say this but they will loose Epsom. Just why they allowed Brash to bulldoze them into picking Banks is beyond me. Any other of their 'quality' candidates would be a shoe in. ACT votes go into the wasted pile.

United Future. Dunne will squeak in just, producing a overhang (which won't be helpful). His saving grace is that he is acknowledged to be a good electorate MP.

Maori Party. Retains their four electorate seats

Mana Party. Retains Te Tai Tokerau and Hone brings Annette Sykes with him. Proxy votes that Labour doesn't need.

The sun will still come up on Sunday (excuse pun).

4 comments:

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

Interesting predictions there.
Yes, Colin Craig and his Conservatives could theoretically kill off ACT and a Key-led government.
Imagine their 3% adding to a 2-3% for ACT getting ACT over the 5% threshold.
We could see Liarbour's Zombie coalition of losers in charge.
I am not saying it will happen, but today's polls highlight the need for National supporters to back Banksie in Epsom.
If only they had chosen Brash for the seat, but there's no benefit in raking over the coals now.
Best wait until next week for the post mortem.

Mort said...

nonessedLiarbore's Zombies....
the same ones kept on and expanded under the National Govt.
Take for instance 1 example:The ones in EQC who are getting in the road, when Subcontracting the jobs out would have produced better results sooner....
National is a Zombie Govt, and only differs from Liarbore by a degree of 1% if that.

mort said...

LOL, wondered where that word verification ended up

Anonymous said...

How depressing although I think you get the govt you deserve. I expect it to be terrible no matter who wins because they mirror us. We need to lift our ethical game at a personal level before we can expect ethics from those who consistently rank lowest on the scale of trustworthiness (and rightly so).

Good luck you political animals - to some of us its not the strategy game you seem to think it is.