Wednesday, November 23, 2011

BUGGER, BUGGER, BUGGER THE POLLS

The latest Fairfax Media Research International Poll released 3 hours ago is a shocker (for Labour and the media doomsayers).

The result:

National 54% +1.5%
Labour 26% + 0.1%
Greens 12% -0.6%
Winston First 4% +1.2%
Maori Party 1.1% -0.4%
Mana Party 1.1% +0.4%
Other 1% -1.5%
ACT 0.7% -0.3%
United Future 0.1% - 0.2%

1,000 people were interviewed and the poll has an MoE of 3.1%

Meanwhile Labour's Clayton Cosgrove in Waimakariri looks to be in the deep doggy do. A Fairfax Media Research International snap poll of 250 voters has National's Kate Wilkinson on 53.9% against Cosgrove's 36%. The MoE is 6.2%. In the Party vote National has 71.% support against Labour's 17.4%. Last election the percentages were National 49.4 vs Labour at 33.9%. Last time round Cosgrove decided against going on the Labour List. This time he changed his mind. Wonder why?

6 comments:

Nick said...

This is bad news for National.

The Veteran said...

BTW ... at 1.1% Hone is close to bringing another drongo drone into Parliament. Anyone know who is No.2 on his List ... Sue Bradford or John Minto or?

Just wondering

PM of NZ said...

Adolf will be beside himself. I can hear him crowing about his beloved Nats from here.

Simon said...

Can we please have some common sense around polls? Only two political leaders have increased their share of votes ever. Helen Clark only managed this because of the break up of the Alliance.

Perhaps you could argue that Act's shenanigans will mean Key gets more support. But, if you add up the support for National and ACT in the last election, it only reaches 48.58%.

The Conservative Party will take some of this vote and some 2008 National voters who voted National to get rid of Helen Clark may go elsewhere.

Veteran: its Annette Sykes.

Psycho Milt said...

BTW ... at 1.1% Hone is close to bringing another [MP] into Parliament.

Excellent - I'm sure Annette Sykes would be a real pain in the govt's arse. This is a much funnier election than last time - back then I was left tossing up which would be the least hopeless party of ignoramuses and lunatics to vote for, but this time there's various potential candidates for making Key's life a misery and in some cases it's a real cliff-hanger as to whether a vote for them would be worthwhile. So, strategic party vote Mana to try and get Annette Sykes into Parliament, strategic party vote Winston First to help avoid disenfranchising over 4% of the voters and for the sheer entertainment value of watching Winnie spend three years chewing Key's ankle, or party vote Green because they're currently the best opposition party? Choices, choices!

Anonymous said...

Do 1000 people work in these pollsters companies,WOW because who do they ring up?????????