Thursday, July 28, 2011

Election Result - November 2011 - Update

Update: 28:07:11

Seats allocated according to latest Roy Morgan poll.
  1. Look how close the Maori Party is to winning list seats.
  2. Where is Dr Brash's mysterious private polling?
Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs % of MPs
Act New Zealand 2.00% 3 1 2 3
2.50%
The Greens 7.50% 9 0 9 9
7.50%
Māori Party 3.00% 4 4 0 4
3.33%
New Zealand Labour Party 31.50% 39 0 39 39
32.50%
New Zealand National Party 52.00% 65 0 65 65
54.17%
Totals 96.00% 120 5 115 120 100.00%


Here's the Adolfian prediction for November 2011. It will be bumped and shown alongside each respective Roy Morgan poll between now and election date. Should Phil Goff be replaced as Labour leader, Adolf will revise his prediction.

Assumptions

  1. Phil Goff remains Labour leader
  2. Dunne loses
  3. Dr Brash is prevented from further alienating sectors of the electorate.
  4. Labour wins Te Tai Tokerau
Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs
% of MPs
Act New Zealand 3.00% 4 1 3 4
3.33%
The Greens 18.00% 22 0 22 22
18.33%
Māori Party 4.00% 5 4 1 5
4.17%
New Zealand Labour Party 20.00% 25 20 5 25
20.83%
New Zealand National Party 51.00% 64 45 19 64
53.33%
Totals 96.00% 120 70 50 120
100.00%

16 comments:

Rimu said...

Mana party?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

No seats and 0.5%

Labour wins Te Tai Tokerau.

Rimu said...

Yeah, given Hone's foot-in-mouth disease, that is possible. However the Maori party has practically imploded, which leaves a big gap.

A 3 way split of the Maori seats between Maori, Mana and Labour is my bet.

Anonymous said...

I think you should predicate this result with the AB's winning the World Cup. If they don't I can't see National getting over 50% once the campaign starts rolling.

I also see ACT getting over 5%. If they're able to get their shit together they could even do around 8%, but not based on their communications triumphs to date.

Paranormal

Shane Ponting said...

ACT will break 5% Adolf.... and that's not wishful thinking (otherwise I would have said 10%)

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Rimu, I don't accept your judgement on MP. If they have imploded, why have they increased their party vote by 30%?

Paranormal, we'll just have to wait and see but you may well be right on the RWC.

I don't believe ACT will make 5% under its current leadership. Even if it made 15% I don't believe Dr Brash would have a shit's show in hell of getting anywhere near Finance or Treasurer.

BTW if Labour rolls Goff I'd see quite a different scenario.

Anonymous said...

even if act wins epsom because key says so why is anyone else going to vote for them?

Pete George said...

Maori Party are still attracting "not Nat-Lab" voters.

There's a lot of soft support or floater voters looking for someone worth voting for.

I think there will be a natural limitation on giving National too much on their own, that's just not showing now becasue of a lack of decent alternatives.

Anonymous said...

"There's a lot of soft support or floater voters looking for someone worth voting for."

Exactly as it should be. Those are the thinkers out there, not the party faithful or I'll do what dad did or I always have and never will etc... types.

Predicting this is a woftam as whatever happens is just same shit, different day.

mawm said...

Adolf, I think National should be very concerned about the "Confidence Rating" as shown in the Roy Morgan Poll. It is heading south very rapidly towards the end of Helen Clark territory. http://www.roymorgan.com/roymorgan/library/b99051_8.jpg

John Key has squandered the best opportunity ever to put NZ on the high road to prosperity.

Anonymous said...

"John Key has squandered the best opportunity ever to put NZ on the high road to prosperity."

I hear he's a communist and a secret mooooslim. He was born in Canada too. His birth certificate is forged. You should chase that one up mawm.

mawm said...

Anon 6:59 - Judge Holden, you need to get a life.

Anonymous said...

Got one thanks mawm, you psychopathic numpty.

KG said...

Holden needs to get a life? It'd need two functioning brain cells for that to happen, Mawm.
So it won't.

big news said...

Dunne wont lose.

Anonymous said...

Oh hello KG, is the celebration of mass murder over at your swamp?