Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Dead Cat Bounce

Bill Hayden is said (erroneously) to have famously remarked of Bob Hawke:-

'Labour would have won with a dead dog's donger for a leader and it did' on the event of Labor's defeat of Malcolm Fraser's Liberals. He actually said 'A drover's dog could have lead Labor to victory.'Link
Judging by the apoplectic commentary over at Farrar's place this morning, there are many unhappy campers amongst ACT party supporters for whom their party's piddling 2% showing in Roy Morgan's poll gives the lie to the bill of goods they were sold by their new leader when he pushed out Rodney Hide.

Clint Heine sums it up for me when he says:-

  1. Clint Heine (1,176) Says:

    Although I expect this will improve, it makes you wonder exactly where this damning proof is (from the Brash camp) that there was plenty of support for him to overthrow Rodney’s leadership. Where is this polling that Brash and co told members of ACT was proof he needed to take over to save the ACT Party from oblivion?

Perhaps the shouters of the uber-right are just waking up to the fact that the National Party itself had a hell of a lot to do with it's electoral fortunes in 2005 and just maybe New Zealanders aren't much interested in the paradox of a party of fundamentalists led by a habitual adulterer.

I think now it is quite likely Dr Brash will fail to make any inroads at all in November. The ACT Party will be able to reflect on its fortunes under the leadership of it's very own Dead Don's Donger.

24 comments:

Anonymous said...

Which part of largest deficit and largest nett debt in the country's history don't you understand?

Which part of all welfare is now borrowed don
t you understand?

We have a choice: be a responsible adult, restructure NZ ourselves - vote for Brash!

or Borrow & Hope, and the IMF will come in and do it for us - vote for John "Smile'n'Wave" Key and Bill "Do Nothing" English!

Anonymous said...

If only Brash had his mummy (like Hone) telling him what to do.....

A plague on both their houses...

Chris Pemberton

Mort said...

Adolf, why are you falling for the Left's position of attacking the many rather than debating the ideas? You are better than that.

mort said...

many should be MAN

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Mort, the answer is very simple. Politics is not just about policy. Character is just as important.

I know Dr Brash has a cult following but that does not mean he is above criticism and I'm unsure how you translate a few observations stating some obvious truths as 'attacking the man.'

If you guys don't improve your poll ratings way above anything achieved by Rodney Hide then you and Dr Brash are sunk forever.

You are not exactly off to a good start.

OECD rank 22 kiwi said...

If ACT is finished this election then all John Key has to do to keep drawing those Prime Minister cheques is win Naitonal 50% of the vote MMP election after MMP election.

There's always his good friends in the Maori Party of course.

Ha ha ha
Own goal time me thinks.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

OECD

Not at all.

Just looking ahead to possible reality of no more ACT if you people don't perform. I'd much prefer to see ACT as a coalition partner but so far you're not covering yourselves in glory.

Anonymous said...

With ACT on 2%, and National on 53%, it would mean the following:

1. ACT, failing to win a seat, falls out of Parliament
2. ACT's vote is redistributed among all the successfully elected parties.
3. National gets 53% of 2%, or a whisker over an extra 1%.
4. National goes to 54%.

So that means National could increase their vote if ACT can't make it. Albeit, it's a one off boost, and then National potentially needs a support partner for 2014. That being said, there would be three years for one to arise without ACT's baggage.

Mort said...

the poll was pre-budget. There was a lot of expectation from the actual taxpayers that something would be done to stop the rot.
ACT's rating went from 1.5 upto 2 thats a 33% increase. All within the margin of error.
The otehr thing to consider is that a lot of ACT voters have already upped sticks to Australia, driven out by lack of income growth, the burden of over taxation and an overly meddling govt. (Not that The Kruddster or Giltard are any less so), so those voters are still eligible to vote. NZ's rapid descent into PIIGs'ville will spur a lot of those ACT voter to cast specials. None of their votes will ever appear in polling.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Here's hoping for something more positive from this week-end's TV1 and TV3 polls.

If they don't show a significant boost then I think it can be said you've all been taken for a ride, without a return ticket.

Anonymous said...

Adolf can prattle on about politics, polling and personalities but the debt isn't concerned and will keep growing like a cancer until Adolf wakes up homeless in a country his ancestors conquered (or something like that).

Someone slimy once said "Give me control of the nations money and I care not who makes its laws" (or something like that). Our fundamental attitude to things economic is deeply flawed and more of the same is not going to fix anything.

Blair said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Heine said...

Mort - incorrect. ACT was polling 2% in the same Roy Morgan March-April poll when Rodney was leader. There is no difference between that and this weeks result, so 33% increase, no spike in membership and a lot of blustering with no proof that the public of NZ are willing to embrace Brash more than Rodney.

Adolf - you were a paid up member of this "Brash cult" yourself. The difference is many of your Nat party colleagues held onto their principles longer than you have and will follow Brash to the ACT Party. Being in National can't be a great place when you have to flip flop every few years to support some very different leaders. This time the stroppy but realistic side of National did something about it and helped Brash take over ACT.

I suspect future polls for ACT will slightly improve on this 2% but in the long term the takeover will be the catalyst for the death of the ACT Party.

I wish them luck but it isn't my concern anymore.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Have a good holiday, Blair.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Heine

No, never a cult follower.

You don't seem to understand one of the first principles of working within a team.

When your team elects a leader it is incumbent on ALL members of the team to publicly support the leader - no matter what their private misgivings might be. It's called loyalty and is meant to preserve public unity. This is no better exhibited than by the US troops who can't stand the current President but respect the Presidency.

On the other hand you have the anarchy which your mob has exhibited non stop over recent years where all the shouters continue to shout and tear their own house down.

The last time there was a cult such as yours in the National Party, NZ was ravaged by Muldoon.

Heine said...

What did Blair say that was so dreadful?

How can you equate that you were never a fan of Brash as the leader of the National Party with your speech about falling in behind your leader?

Your party is so confused, no wonder you have parts of it bleeding to ACT and no doubt to any other grouping that may appear if ACT disappeared. You cannot sustain a party that has Shipley, English, Brash and Key loyalists all in the same boat. Not to mention a smattering of sympathy for the Muldoon days hidden far beneath the exterior.

I got behind my leader. I didn't get in behind the National Party Brash wing taking over ACT because they were sick of your leaders choice to favour populism over commonsense. Makes me glad I am overseas because they all make me sick looking at the long term damage we will sustain in NZ.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Heine

You just don't get it and I doubt you ever will.

Mort said...

Heine invested a lot of time into ACT, and fears that with the new leadership regime, the Liberal/ Laissez Fare component will die. The presence of the tax, borrow and spendaholic shopping for the Epsom nomination would be evidence enough.
Overall the financial fundamentals have remained fairly constant, yes there are a lot of shouters and the Social liberalism is usually the fulcrum for this.
But National can't really say the same thing, because core to National are most of the policies ACT tries to sell, but pragmatism has shunted those policies/ fundamentals of thrift, hard work, property rights and smaller govt, to somewhere out on the horizon, to be implemented at the 5-6th term in parliament.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Yes Mort, I'm sure he does fear that much will be lost and maybe that all his effort has been hijacked. For myself, I do think ACT was hijacked and that in fairly short order the hijackers will out on their bums. What happens after that is anyone's guess. Of one thing I'm sure, National will be the worse off if ACT fails to produce five MPS in November.


You are being a bit harsh in your commentary on National. I'd say second or third term would be more accurate. You can't make sweeping changes during the aftermath of a recession and expect to survive.

There's no saving at all in pushing a few thousand public servants out with generous redundancy just for them to go onto the dole because there are insufficient jobs available.

Just keep your eye glued to those gdp numbers and my guess is you'll find the PS mandarins doing the chopping at about the same time as the numbers improve.

Reggie said...

If you are going to set yourself up as the "perkbuster" you need to maintain the utmost of standards and discipline yourself.

The good people of Epsom would've probably decided to retire Mr Hide at the next election anyway.

Blair said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Go read the rules and stop your moaning.

Anonymous said...

"There's no saving at all in pushing a few thousand public servants out with generous redundancy just for them to go onto the dole because there are insufficient jobs available."

The trouble is that a survey I heard about on the raido the other day indicated that private enterprise doesn't want ex civil servants anyway because they don't fit the hard work model that private enterprise usually requires. So, they need to wake up their ideas or become extinct - it seems pointless to let the status quo continue as that only helps the least productive drones. This is all bloody depressing really.

Heine said...

Mort is right and Adolf is once again wrong. I get it but your ignorance is frankly embarrassing.

You either lied or swallowed more rats than the city of London after the 08 election. National has disappointed so many and you were on this very blog talking about National sticking by its principles which you have gladly traded in for popularity and warm hugs.

I'd rather walk away from something knowing I was always consistent and principled than being yet another Nat who changes their ideology more often than they have hot suppers. I bet you were a Bill English fan too which shows it wasn't just him who had too many knocks to the head.