Thursday, May 19, 2011

Budget Reaction

Adolf's immediate reaction is disappointment there was not a more aggressive pursuit of the upper income WFF recipients and a faster and more robust clamp down on what effectively is taxpayer rorting by university graduates. I'd like to see some adjustments made here before November.

However, on balance it is a pretty good budget with just one surprise. That is the proposed sell down of Air NZ to, presumably, 51%. No time frame was given for this move but it is a clear lesson for Lyen Len in Auckland. If you want your flash new railway, sell your bloody airport shares. Don't ask the people of Christchurch to pay for your toys.

Of course, the acid test will be the reaction of the international ratings agencies. Last time everyone was predicting a down grade, not only did one not occur but the rating was improved. If, once again, the country is able to avoid a down grade then Bill English will be able to thumb his nose at Dr Brash and his cult followers.

The move to turn the budget into an election manifesto is nothing short of pure genius. Labour are running around like headless chooks. They don't know what to do or what to say. The battle field is being prepared by NACTionalMP on their own terms and Labour have to spend the whole seven months fighting from behind. Always reacting and never sure what is just round the corner. I wonder what nasty surprises John Key has in store for them between now and November?

I see the Actoid shouters were very quick off the mark over at Farrar's place. So was John Armstrong in the Herald. Dismissive of the whole thing on the basis that it relies on a return to economic growth. Well, all I can say is Armstrong and Berend should get themselves down to the Temuka sale yards and see the price of lambs. They should stop reading the tommy rot at RedAlert and go have a look at Fonterra's website. They should also have a look at Australia's federal budget for real pie in the sky stuff. Back to surplus in three years but ONLY if the Chinese economy doesn't pass wind.

New Zealand's return to prosperity is already well and truly on the way and it's coming from the county's farmers - from whence always it has come.

Talking of ACT, it's hard to see what difference the sudden arrival of Dr Brash will have on overall policy. It is inconceivable that National will allow ACT to dictate terms which would surely bring about the rapid recovery and return of the flailing Labour Party to once again wreck the place and give everything away to their no-hoper followers.

19 comments:

Anonymous said...

and Pollyanna was very happy, too !

baxter. said...

A great Leaders speech from John KEY. Like you I think there is still a lot of wasteful baggage from the last government to be removed.

Anonymous said...

I'm disappointed. Its smile and pray. If there's no growth we are doomed. We won't just be tenants - we'll be evicted.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Anon 6.31

Why don't you go and read John O'Brien's wonderful poem "Hanrahan"?

It's all about you!

Anonymous said...

Adolf's immediate reaction is disappointment

It's complete and utter CRAP but we knew that already.

there was not a more aggressive pursuit of the upper income WFF recipients


How about terminate WFF completely?


and a faster and more robust clamp down on what effectively is taxpayer rorting by university graduates.



I'd like to see some adjustments made here before November.


I'd like to see a real emergency austerity budget in November: combining Roger's 1984 budget, Ruths 1991 budget and Dave Cameron's 2010 emergency budget.

Because NZ sure as hell needs it!

Mort said...

Nero and Rome....

Anonymous said...

You know how totally fucked the budget is when leftists like PublicAddress say:

So… what? $1.4b is neither here nor there. In the last Budget, when English cut the future operating allowance, it had a similar impact. So this is kinda like that. It’s kinda boring. But English is focusing on this “A Credible Path” line because he wants us to look at a single point in time in four years’ time, not at the $16b deficit hole we are in the moment, nor at the long-term fiscal abyss that we’re trundling towards.


Which part of "$16 BILLION deficit hole" , and especially "long-term fiscal abyss" don't you understand.


If National had cancelled WFF, cancelled all student loans, and cancelled all benefits and super then we'd be out of the deficit. But not before.

Fiscally responsible? crap.

The only reason NZ's credit rating isn't heading quickly towards junk status is because the rating agencies are frankly useless cowards.

Ireland and Iceland crashed completely while their credit ratings were at least as good as NZ is today.

Shane Ponting said...

End the handouts (e.g. WFF), lower the taxes and actually get stuck into the spending with something more than 1000-grit sandpaper.

Anonymous said...

Adolf

The tax working group strongly recommended simplyfying the tax system. Everyone knows that's what has to happen. So why is Blinglish making it more complicated?

JUST STOP FUCKING WITH OTHER PEOPLE'S MONEY AND LET THEM KEEP IT. IT'S FUCKEN SIMPLE.

Heine said...

You were very much a paid up member of the Brash cult yourself Adolf.
I don't see how you could call it a victory against Brash and co if NZ managed to just miss out on a downgrade - we should be aiming for far more than that.

Pretty sure that those that compromise everything they believe in don't call it a victory when all they have is power - but no principles left.

Anonymous said...

Actually Standard & Poors downgraded NZ sovereign rating outlook from Stable to Negative in Nov 2010 and Fitch did the same in June 2010 but what would they know.

Also of interest when the Government tried to borrow one billion dollars in one week a month ago they couldn't sell the last 150 million tranche until the rate was 80 POINTS higher than the face coupon value (the last time things ever got this bad was 24 July 1984, I wonder what was happening then).

One would almost think that the people actually lending NZ money know nothing about risk and don't believe Bill English's latest Budget assumptions:
- NZ GDP will GROW 4%+ PER ANNUM EVERY YEAR FOR THE NEXT 4 YEARS.
- NZ will gain 170,000 NEW PRIVATE SECTOR FULL TIME EQUIVALENT JOBS over those 4 years (43,000 p.a.).
- The Government total revenues will on average INCREASE 5.8% PER YEAR, year on year for 4 years in a row.
- Inflation over those 4 years will only average 1.9%.
- Employee paid income will RISE ON AVERAGE AT LEAST 4.5% P.A. for every one of those 4 years.

Treasury predictions are never wrong. Dare one quote a certain Tui ad?

Anonymous said...

The more I think about it, the more unbelievably irresponsible this budget is:

End the handouts (e.g. WFF), lower the taxes

you don't get it: WFF is a drop in the bucket when we're borrowing $16Bn this year and ever year for the next 5.
Lowering taxes only makes the huge hole so much worse!!

How bad is it: stopping the entire welfare system still wouldn't close the hole in the accounts.

This is the worst budget ever in the history of NZ. Even Muldoon was never as blatantly irresponsible as English has been.

Flashman said...

This is an unbelievably gentle budget.

However it is an election year.

Anonymous said...

Actually Standard & Poors downgraded NZ sovereign rating outlook from Stable to Negative in Nov 2010 and Fitch did the same in June 2010 but what would they know.


Right - so the "no change" says NZ remains on negative creditwatch.

Frankly I'd have dumped two tiers of ratings right after the Christchurch earthquake.

Iceland and Ireland went bankrupt with better credit ratings than NZ has now!

Anonymous said...

"Why don't you go and read John O'Brien's wonderful poem "Hanrahan"?

It's all about you!"

Yeah, I guess it is sort of. I trust God to do what he will for good and be my strength and all that but God doesn't ask me to ignore planning for a dry/rainy day and economic issues. When it turns to crap at a level that impacts you painfully remind me again. Some may say it serves you right for endorsing poor decisions but I won't be one of those.

I see Hanrahan topped himself - not much of an endorsement irrespective of how good his work was.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Anon 10.29.

Hanrahan topped himself? News to me.

Apologies. I should have used the full title "Said Hanrahan."

Obrien died at age 74 in 1952. I haven't seen any hint of suicide.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Sinner

Fortunately for NZ, you won't see what you want.

Anonymous said...

On the contrary - I'm pretty damn likely to see just what I don't want: an IMF bailout scheme that is more draconian than anything I've ever advocated.

Anonymous said...

Well clearly you are still in denial over the gross incompetence and complete nothingness that is National today.

Gawd, if that budget and its static vision does it for you things must be fucken boring in your life.