I think he is wrong. First, the latest polls don't bear out his theory and second, he underestimates the support for Hone Harawira.
Have a look at Roy Morgan's results from yesterday's release.
The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has weakened slightly to 52.5% (down 0.5%), comprising National Party 49.5% (up 1%), Maori Party 2.5% (up 1%), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%) and United Future 0% (down 1%).
Support for Opposition Parties has risen to 47.5% (up 0.5%); Labour Party 36.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 8% (unchanged), New Zealand First 2.5% (down 2%), Progressive Party 0% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).
If a National Election were held today the National Party would be returned to Government.
National up by 1% on 49.4%
Maori Party up by 1% on 2.5%
ACT down by 1.5% on 0.5% (That's actually a loss of 75% from last month's 2.0% result.)
It is difficult to see from these figures how Hone Harawira can magically produce a victory for the left or for that matter how Rodney Hide can resurrect his own party.
One is left wondering where the other 0.5% of last month's ACT supporters went. Could it be they went to Labour, along with the other wallies from Winston First?
Who'd want to be in politics?