Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Idle Speculation

Clint Heine speculates on a potential split in the Maori Party whereby the black motherfucker from Up North rushes back to Labour's arms with a large chunk of the MP vote, thereby producing a surprise victory for the ratbags of the left, presumably in 2011.

I think he is wrong. First, the latest polls don't bear out his theory and second, he underestimates the support for Hone Harawira.

Have a look at Roy Morgan's results from yesterday's release.

The latest New Zealand Roy Morgan Poll shows support for John Key’s National-led Government has weakened slightly to 52.5% (down 0.5%), comprising National Party 49.5% (up 1%), Maori Party 2.5% (up 1%), ACT NZ 0.5% (down 1.5%) and United Future 0% (down 1%).

Support for Opposition Parties has risen to 47.5% (up 0.5%); Labour Party 36.5% (up 2.5%), Greens 8% (unchanged), New Zealand First 2.5% (down 2%), Progressive Party 0% (down 0.5%) and Others 0.5% (up 0.5%).

If a National Election were held today the National Party would be returned to Government.

National up by 1% on 49.4%

Maori Party up by 1% on 2.5%

ACT down by 1.5% on 0.5% (That's actually a loss of 75% from last month's 2.0% result.)

It is difficult to see from these figures how Hone Harawira can magically produce a victory for the left or for that matter how Rodney Hide can resurrect his own party.

One is left wondering where the other 0.5% of last month's ACT supporters went. Could it be they went to Labour, along with the other wallies from Winston First?

Who'd want to be in politics?


James Stephenson said...

It's pointless wondering about that 0.5% Adolf - the margin of error's bigger than the result itself.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

James, it's not pointless. ACT's total polling is ALWAYS within the margin of error but they still just happen to have five MPs in the house.

Anonymous said...

why don't you mention united future's 0%??!!


3 news also showed similar support for National.
If Maori does implode there will be a greater need for National to keep ACT, even if it is reduced to an even smaller rump of 1-2 MPs.
Who knows, National may not need any of them if the smaller parties disappear.
I cannot see Liarbour and the Greens forming a majority.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Because it is of no relevance.

gravedodger said...

John Hatfield must be embarrassing to educated thinking citizens who are part Maori whether they are on the Maori or General Roll. His core support although total racists will be of little consequence as pragmatic reality rules.
Caught a doco with Micky Havoc about "finding his tribe" involving the reality that is modern Ngai Tahu and the responses from those who are using the resources of the treaty settlement to progress their young and their businesses was a revelation and the contrast to the grass skirt mentality of Hatfield's brain dead followers was graphic.

Just my opinion said...

Fair points mate but what I am presuming is that the Maori Party implodes. There is most certainly a lot of rumblings going on with some of the party supporters. All it takes is for one or two MPs to get nervous closer to the election and we have a whole new ball game.