Friday, August 27, 2010

OZ ELECTION WASHUP #1

Trying to predict the final seats tally in their Lower House is a bit like trying to predict which Labour MP here will be next to spit the dummy but ....

As it stands and according to the AEC the Coalition are likely to end up with 73 seats, Labor 72, the Greens 1 and Independents 4. Simple ... not quite. Because the sole Green MP has declared he's supporting Labor that brings their tally up to 73 and because the so called National MP who defeated the long serving Liberal MP in the outback of WA declared that the Coalition couldn't depend on his vote that brings their total down to 72 with the now 5 'Independents' holding the balance of power.
Who said the Irish make things difficult?

So who will form the Government? Well, the Veteran correctly predicted a 'hung Parliament' so, for what is it worth, I am now predicting that Labor will form a minority administration with the Greens and some Independents and further, that uneasy alliance will implode in the next little while leading Australia back to the ballot box and the Coalition odds on to form a Government in their own right.

That is what I am hearing from my Liberal Party sources.

The whole thing is dependent on who gets first crack at forming a Government. You might think that the Party holding the greatest number of seats might be in the box seat. Complicated just a tad by the fact that the Australian GG, whose daughter is married to the Labor Party politician Bill Shorter, head kicker and prime orchestrator of the dumping of Kevin Rudd, has been advised there are no constitutional impediments to her giving first go to Gillard as the PM in being.

Really? So perception of bias doesn't matter a bit!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!?

Funny lot across the ditch

13 comments:

KG said...

"Funny lot across the ditch"

Nearly as funny as here, where pandering to a few brown demagogues dictates government policies.

pdm said...

The Aussie situation seems a clear case of `whoever forms the Government loses' because it is hard to see either option being long term. In this case long term being past 6 months.

The one positive they have is there is no Peters to hold everyone to ransom.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

pdm, haven't you had a look yet at Katter? He's kinda like Peters and Roger Douglas combined with a little touch of Sue Bradford thrown in.

pdm said...

Adolf - I must confess to not having taken too much interest other than the overall result.

I am pretty well insulated from it here in Lindon. Thee Beeb occasionally does a bit of cherrleading for Gillard but other than that there is not much coverage.

pdm said...

oops make that London in line 1 para2.

Anonymous said...

Tony Abbott won the election fair and square.

What part of 4,832000 vs 4,239000 or 73 vs 72 don't you understand?

Labor simply does not have the numbers in the Senate even for a minority government to maintain supply.

There are only two democratic choices: Tony Abbott now, or Tony Abbott after another election.

Frankly, I think it should be Tony Abbot now, a double dissolution timed with the NSW & QLD elections, and the joint sitting to basically ban the unions and Labor

1951. Time to finish the job -

And Tony Abbott is the man to do it!

Anonymous said...

double dissolution??? ffs they need to permanently dissolve State govt altogether. Its just another tranche of troughers twiddling their thumbs, talking twaddle, and thieving from the productive.
Its probably the one thing that kruddster did right, even if it was a continuation of a Howrad initiative, namely nationalising health registration boards, next step continue the initiative started in Devonport-La Trobe's Mersey Hospital, by privatising/ nationalising all healthcare, followed by education, then police, and just quasifederalise welfare by closing it down

Anonymous said...

Abbott again calls the lefties bluff with his refusal to allow biased costings from within a corrupted treasury, and so will probably fail to be able to form a government. However, with the Senate effectively able to block more Labor/Green madness the Australians will be back to the polls in 2011. It will be intersting too, because the next arm of the double dip will be in full swing and the market will have bottomed, perhaps even unemployment will be able to counter the population growth stimulus which has enabled Australia to hold off the collapse of the housing bubble.
One thing is for sure though, if Labor get into power and try to enact the Iron/Coal theft tax, Australia can say cya to any new mines being developed, and thus the power house/ resuscitator of the entire economy will be gone. No longer will they be able to soak up their redundant workers into relatively highly paid positions. Entire regions will falter and that will spread like a cancer into the cities. Minimum wage workers will experience unemployment levels of 30-50%. This of course will affect NZ too as they are our No1 market, so we can expect follow on pain. You won't read any of this in the MSM here, cos they are all thick as porcine effluent, and seem to think that being a female who can dole out other people's money makes you god's gift to politics.

The Veteran said...

Anonymous 12.04 am ... two points

First, Abbott has now agreed to have the Treasury cost the Coalitions promise list so they can brief the so called 'Independents' on the proviso that info is not made available to the Government.

Just how that prevents any of the Independents leaking that advice to the Government does however escape me.

Second, come June 2011 Labor and the Greens gain control of the Senate.

Anonymous said...

Think outside the square chaps. They have no govt, the sky isn't falling. Why not leave it that way and see what happens?

Anonymous said...

Not only having the most seats and the most votes,
the only way Gillard can get a majority is with the Greens.

The WA & QLD independents hate the Greens with a passion - what's more the latest polls have the voters in those seats overwhelmingly preferring a Coalition government.

Gillard is toast. ABBOTT IS PM

coge said...

Abbott will be PM. He is a more talented politician than Gillard. She knows it & she ain't happy about it. Give it two weeks & there will be a result.

Anonymous said...

Aussie Politics is so refreshing:

As one Labor Minister told The Drum: "I'm expecting them (Windsor, Katter and Oakeshott) to go with the Coalition for one very simple reason. How could they go back to their electorates every weekend and be confronted with constituents calling them "pinko bastards"?"


And this was published -not by FOX - but by the ABC