Monday, August 9, 2010

AUSTRALIAN ELECTION

The lunitic Right fringe of the ACT Party will breathe a sigh of relief to know the The Veteran will be absent from the end of this week through until 25 August. I am in Australia as a guest of the Liberal Party looking at campaign tactics. I will be concentrating on the Liberal marginal seat of Paterson (NSW) held by the Hon Bob Baldwin, Shadow Minister of Defence Science and Personnel. Last election the two Party preferred vote was Liberal 51.5% (-5%) vs Labor 48.5% (+5%). Paterson is a rural seat north of Newcastle. The redistribution is thought to favour Labor.

BTW. Can anyone tell me why in Aust they opt for Labor over Labour?

While my heart tells me that the Liberals will win the election my head tells me otherwise. Neither New Zealand or Australia have a history of turning out a Government after only one term. In recent times (post 1970) there have only been three such occasions.

Nevertheless the manner in which Gillard rolled Rudd may prove decisive in the final result, particularly in Queensland.

Look for the Liberals to pick up seats in WA, Qld, NSW and possibly Tas and NT. For Labor to do well in Vic and SA. In WA and Qld the Mining Tax issue continues to bite Labor. Note too that in Qld and NSW you have two very unpopular Labor State Governments. Polls suggest that up to 45% of voters are influenced in their final choice by their perception of how well their State Government is performing.

Bellwether seats to look for include Bass and Braddon in Tas and Solomon in the NT.

There will be no change in the two ACT seats. Both are held by Labor with over 60% of the vote. Turkeys don't vote for an early Xmas.

And overlaying all of this is The Mad Monk vs the Photoshopped Puppet (c/w 'authentic' Ocker accent). Both have baggage.

As I said, my heart tells me one thing, my head the other. Going to be a fascinating ten days. Looking forward to it.

23 comments:

Inventory2 said...

Veteran - it wouldn't surprise me if turnout is lower than usual. Ockers that I talked to at the weekend have simply lost interest in politics.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

You lucky bugger. Wandering around in the tracks of the Great Bard and swallowing your way through the fabulous produce of the Hunter Valley.

Campaign tactics?

Pull the other leg!

Anonymous said...

Voting in Australia is compulsory, a legislated position to enforce more vote for the left, as more of the blue collar worker/ benficiary types are likely to be no shows at the election booth, thus force is required to get them there.
As for the outcome, my money is on the budgie smuggler, simply because Labor have lost their soundbite, and that was the only thing to get into the treasury benches last time (that and the fact that people had become disillusioned with Howard and how it looked like the coalition weren't up to much). Bring the Kruddster back now of course just looks desperate (especially given he has attempted to torpedo her campaign with 3-4 crucial pieces of cabinet voting), and the Gilltard et al are looking to be scrapping the barrel.

Anonymous said...

BTW. Can anyone tell me why in Aust they opt for Labor over Labour?

It was started as "Labour" but in 1912, a ex-US Republican & Communist, King O'Malley managed to get them to change the spelling.


In recent times (post 1970) there have only been three such occasions.

In Aussie, I think it's 80 years for the federal govt.

Still: it's pretty damn clear Labor are totally fucked in Aus. They lots QLD when they shafted Rudd, WA when Rudd shafted the miners, and basically the outer suburbs of Sydney (where elections are decided) have gone solid blue in the last month.

There will be no change in the two ACT seats. Both are held by Labor with over 60% of the vote. Turkeys don't vote for an early Xmas.


Heh. When Abbot gets in the Turkeys won't have a fucking choice. Abbot will be a great, great, aussie PM. I still have fond memories of him enforcing WorkChoices - and nothing convinces me he's really changed, thank God! He really really hated unions & Labour then, and hates 'em even more now.

Things are looking really good in Aus - and the "gap" is just going to get wider & wider.

~~Just Me in T~~ said...

http://just-me-in-t.blogspot.com/2010/08/let-us-provoke-thought-or-two.html

In general, the art of government consists of taking as much money as possible from one party of the citizens to give to the other. -- Voltaire (1764)
And on that note all I can say (since 1764) seemingly - not a lot has changed.

Heine said...

There isn't a lunatic right wing of ACT Veteran, but I hear about 50 or so Labour supporters are masquerading as National MPs :)

KG said...

"..but I hear about 50 or so Labour supporters are masquerading as National MPs"

LOL! Nice one.

Anonymous said...

Whats with this trend of commentators saying "et al"

Been reading to many climate blogs perhaps..

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Anon, people who know what et al means generally know also the difference between to and too.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Heine

Really?

Our people, along with ACT, are in there making the changes that are necessary in a way that ensures they can be made.

You guys really are a bloody laugh, you know. On the one hand you rail against Obama who is about to get his arse handed to him by the electorate and on the other you expect the NACTionalMP gummint here to do exactly as Obama has done. Alienate the electorate and get thrown out.

Sounds like fuckwittery to me.

The Veteran said...

Heine ... of course there is the lunatic Right fringe of ACT or haven't you been reading this blog of Kiwiblog recently. They are the ones who rant against National at every opportunity, usually employing profanity laced with bad spelling. John Key particularly is to be despised as 'the Great Satan'. Woger is greater than God.

But the reality is that they do ACT immense harm and the more responsible members of ACT must tear their hair out on occasions.

Have you ever considered why ACT polls about half that of Winston First? Simple, those wild mouthings frighten away more rationale voters. Those who know that politics is the art of the possible rather than the impossible.

I guess though I should welcome their continued intervention as helping National.

I want to see an ACT Party as a respected member of the coalition Government ... and respect goes both ways ... but the Neandertal and knuckle dragging lunatic Right fringets have neither the wit nor the will to realize that simple truth ... sigh

Anonymous said...

Woger is greater than God.

Wuth is greater than God.

Woger is an ex-labour cunt who happily votes for JohnKey's tax rises.

I want to see an ACT Party as a respected member of the coalition Government

I want to see labour & the unions destroyed, all benefits stopped, codgers & bludgers starving on the streets, and schools & hospitals running for profit.

So far ACT has done nothing to enact those policies. Absolutely nothing. Even though they are in govefnment and even though that was its fucking manifesto.


On the one hand you rail against Obama who is about to get his arse handed to him by the electorate

Osama is a communist Kenyan who should be deported not be president.

and on the other you expect the NACTionalMP gummint here to do exactly as Obama has done.

I expect NACTional to do what the Cons/Lib coalition in the UK is doing. Demanding 40% cuts across the board and eliminating the National debt within 5 years. What happened to the minibudget in nov 2008? What the fuck happened to the "step change" budget this year? Cameron is doing it. Johnkey is doing nothing

Alienate the electorate and get thrown out.

Hold a proper pleinpotentiary anti-Labour/union anti-Corruption inquiry, repair the electoral system for the immediate next election (2011) - again, Cameron is doing this - and NACTional would be back with a greatly increased majority, and the Labour party would no longer exist.

The Veteran said...

Anonymous 8.18 pm ... thank you for the advice re O'Malley and Labor. Looked him up on Wiki and it makes fascinating reading. I was particularly attracted to this segment ....

"While in Texas O'Malley founded a church taking the title of "First Bishop of the Waterlily Rock Bound Church, the Red Skin Temple of the Cayuse Nation" in order to take advantage of a government land grant then being offered to churches."

Just about par for a Labor politician ... screwing the system.

Anonymous said...

"Anon, people who know what et al means generally know also the difference between to and too."

Well either that or they had to type fast because of a two year old gone rogue.
But hey its your blog and you have every right to continue to cement your reputation as being a churlish pedant regarded as one of the blogosphere's pre-eminent fuck wits.
Cheers

The Veteran said...

Anonymous 10.01 ... sorry to 'rain on your parade' old chap but ....

you said "repair the electoral system for the immediate next election (2011) - again, Cameron is doing this".

Errrrr ... 'repair'. Cameron is doing nothing of the sort. He has been forced into holding a referendum as part of his coalition agreement with the Liberal Democrats. It was a make or break point designed to do away with FFP and replace it with AV.

The AV system, if adopted, will gift the Lib Dems an additional 30-40 seats at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives .... and if you are into 'flake' politics then look no further than the LD 'Left'.

Anonymous said...

Left or right, if you are involved at this level you are part of the problem.

While its not my business, given you are to the right and all about accountability I was hoping that the trip is paid for by free will donations to the Libs rather than by a govt grant pinched from tax payers.

Anonymous said...

The AV system, if adopted, will gift the Lib Dems an additional 30-40 seats at the expense of both Labour and the Conservatives

The AV system (same as Aussie) will give the LibDems very few seats, and together with the boundary review - will ensure those seats all come from Labour.

Look at the UK results of the Euro-Election: permanent Conservative/UNIP govt, with LibDems on the left and BNP on the right as potential coalition partners. Labour - down into fourth place behind the BNP.

The Veteran said...

Anonymous 2.47 pm .... clearly you don't have too much of a handle on how Party to Party business is done.

The entire cost is mine and mine alone although if the Libs want to shout me a few drinks on election night then I will accept them with gratitude.

Anonymous said...

Thanks Veteran. In this instance, having no involvement in politics except as a victim, I am not embarrassed by my ignorance. I hope your lot are the lesser evil, save the world and have fun in the sun.

Anon 2.47

Heine said...

Ha ha ha, I really touched a nerve with Adolf and Veteran, and I suspect I touched a little too close to the bone.

How does voting against Bulk Funding for instance, be in the greater good for anybody? Come on now, can you explain that? And I call bullshit on your Obama theory - Labour got away with doing it their way in their first term.

Veteran, ACTs polling better than NZF if you believe the last polls.

How does the ETS or backing Helen in the UN top job work into this greater plan for NZ?
The National Party is doing the "right" a great disservice. This blog said triumphantly that the last election campaign was a smoke screen for good right wing policy... and then the last 2 years they proved nothing. Do we have to wait until the next term to be promised the same thing or should we just dispense with the fibs now?

The Veteran said...

Errrr Heine ..

ACT 1.3%
Winston First 2.3%
on the rolling average of Polls

what part of FAIL don't you understand?

Vouchers in Schools> Clearly you are having if 'off' with Murial.
Fine in theory but in the bidy politik it just doesn't wash.

I repeat

ACT 1.3%
Winston First 2.3%

Politicvs is the art of the possible. Clearly ACT are (and I will spell this s l o w e l y)
challenged in that department.

The Veteran said...

re my last ... The computer went feral b4 I managed my spell check.

Heine said...

Veteren... no, it was bulk funding mate. Not vouchers, it was all about bulk funding. And National used to support it.
If it was vouchers, then even worse - as that too would fall well within Nationals "principles" and "beliefs". The Maori Party voted for it as they quite like choice...
Such a pity.

Pollwise, the latest Roy Morgan has both at 2%, August Colmar Brunton has Act 2.7 and New Zealand First 2.3. A TV3 Reid Research poll has Act on 2.2 and NZ First on 1.5

:-)