OK, time to get off the can. The last 48 hours has seen a shift to the Liberals with one poll having the two party preferred vote at Labor 52% vs Liberals 48%; a second tied at 50% vs 50 % and a third at somewhere in between. All polling suggests that in the marginal seats the coalition is punching above its weight.
The second poll had the Labor primary vote dropping to 35%. If this is right conventional wisdom has it that Labor cannot win the election.
Weighing on my mind is the fact that the latest redistribution has 4 currently held Liberal seats now notionally Labor. None the other way - funny that.
More than happy to be proved wrong but my prediction is for a hung parliament with the Greens (winning the Melbourne seat off Labor) and the three Independents in the QLD seat of Kennedy and the NSW seats of New England and Lynn holding the balance of power.
Been a fascinating week over here. NZ hasn't featured in the news at all apart from some rescued fishermen.
August 1 in history
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