Saturday, August 21, 2010

AUSTRALIAN ELECTION #5

OK, time to get off the can. The last 48 hours has seen a shift to the Liberals with one poll having the two party preferred vote at Labor 52% vs Liberals 48%; a second tied at 50% vs 50 % and a third at somewhere in between. All polling suggests that in the marginal seats the coalition is punching above its weight.

The second poll had the Labor primary vote dropping to 35%. If this is right conventional wisdom has it that Labor cannot win the election.

Weighing on my mind is the fact that the latest redistribution has 4 currently held Liberal seats now notionally Labor. None the other way - funny that.

More than happy to be proved wrong but my prediction is for a hung parliament with the Greens (winning the Melbourne seat off Labor) and the three Independents in the QLD seat of Kennedy and the NSW seats of New England and Lynn holding the balance of power.

Been a fascinating week over here. NZ hasn't featured in the news at all apart from some rescued fishermen.

4 comments:

KG said...

"NZ hasn't featured in the news at all apart from some rescued fishermen."
You mean Australians aren't interested in
'Fatigue may be to blame for fatal crash'
and
'Woman arrested after abusing police'

Good grief...those Aussies are so..parochial!

Psycho Milt said...

Last time I was there the news was focusing on what Kylie might be going to give Danii's baby as a present, and which footballer's girlfriend is the sexiest. It looks like Australia doesn't feature much in the news at all over there either...

bubbsie said...

Hey, Veteran,

someone frm the ACT party was looking for you... had something in a plain brown envelope that you might like to read !

Bit late now, the dirty deed is done and ACT implodes, again ...

Anonymous said...

Well we will see who is bullshitting when HWM gets back to Parliament and the opposition ask him about it.