Tuesday, August 17, 2010

AUSTRALIAN ELECTION #3

Been here at Lake MacQuarie a couple of days now and on Thursday I will be in the Liberal marginal seat of Paterson looking at the Liberal Party campaign machine. Apart from that seat the area around Newcastle where I am is solid red Labor territory.

Three observations. The first is that both Labor and the Liberals are making extensive use of 'attack' ads directed at Abbot and Gillard respectively. That is a little surprising to me as conventional wisdom has it that attack ads can turn into a negative for the Party using them.

The second relates to the saturation Labour Party radio and TV advertising here is a (supposedly) safe Labor area. I mean no-one is suggesting that the Liberals are in with a realistic chance in Newcastle, Charlestown, Hunter or Charlton yet we are being bombarded with Labor Party ads. Put the question and the answer straight back from my brother-in-law (who is a swinging voter) is that the State Labor Government is so unpopular that Federal Labor has been forced to divert resources into shoring up what should be theirs in spades.

Gillard got it right is delaying her campaign launch until yesterday. That gave her huge publicity (and momentum) at the start of 'finals' week. That momentum could stall if Abbot does well in the economic debate/town hall debate scheduled for tomorrow night. It is generally agreed that Abbot bested Gillard in the (quaintly named) Rooty Hill debate last week.

Still picking Gillard but 5 days is a long time in politics.

9 comments:

Tauhei Notts said...

Have a look at Betfair. Gillard will defaecate upon Abbott from a great height,

Anonymous said...

Still picking Gillard but 5 days is a long time in politics.


Then you'll lose.

Gillard will defaecate upon Abbott from a great height,

And betfair's never been wrong - and never had labor oppo research money bet on it - yeah RIGHT.

You need to be in QLD, WA marginals, and outer sydney suburbs. They are swinging in behind Abbott more than enough.

Ackers said...

No they are not.

http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2010/08/17/nielsen-marginals-mega-poll/

Anonymous said...

If you want news from WA or QLD look for it there - not in fucking melbourne.

http://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/election/a/-/article/7779115/labor-in-desperate-dash-to-wa/

Labour are so fucking desperate they're ringing voters personally. They are fucked, and rightfully shit-scared of what Abbott will to do 'em and their union mates. Ha! he was on the radio saying he'd chop the dole for bludgers!

If only we had a Mad Monk here - although Boscowen & Garrett might be able to do a good impersonation here now - after shafting the last commies out of ACT

sagenz said...

anon - 10:11 if you think that ringing voters personally is desperate then you have no idea how election campaigns are run. Telephone canvassing, door knocking, and election night knocking up pledges are signs of a well organised campaign with committed activists. Being unable to get people out to do that is a VERY bad sign

coge said...

I've been part of a group of trolls working long hours & days on Julia's facebook site.
It has been an interesting time. I've seen Labor apparatchiks lie & corrupt young minds there & the young labour luvvies simply lap it all up. I think the ALP will scrape in, but the Aussie media is different to what we have here, thus there won't be a six year honeymoon for them.

Anonymous said...

Is Veteran the one sniffing about looking for classified documents via the ACT party?

Phil Sage (sagenz) said...

anon - sounds like shit to me.

Anonymous said...

ee bah gum...!

nowt on act...?

(and that pesky defence-document..?..)

phil(whoar.co.nz)