Friday, April 30, 2010

Conservatives and Lib Dems will hold each other's target seats

The Tories are in a good position to get an overall majority despite the surge in support for the Lib dems based on current polls. Using the 2005 notional results based on boundary changes data provided at UK Polling Report I believe the Tories can get as low as 35% providing Labour is 29.5% or less based on a seat by seat assessment of the swing impact. I have based this assessment on Conservatives not gaining any Lib Dem seats, Others (SNP, Independent etc) holding. I would upload the spreadsheet but blogger does not seem to allow that.



Labour are currently polling only 27% according to UKPollingReport. That is before the disastrous B.I.G.O.T. comments. Brown Is Gone On Thursday!



A UK polling report commentary on a Guardian poll of Lib Dem target seats suggests that the Lib Dems will not take their Tory target seats but will take more Labour target seats.
It gets more interesting though if you look seperately at the Conservative-held LibDem targets, and the Labour-held LibDem targets. As Julian Glover rightly warns in his commentary, only 15 of these seats are Labour held so the sample size isn’t huge and some caution is necessary, but it appears to show that the Lib Dem advance in marginals is wholly concentrated in Labour held ones: taken separately, responses in Con-v-LD seats shows no discernable swing to the Liberal Democrats, but a swing of about 8 points in Lab-v-LD seats. That would result in the Lib Dems taking about 28 or so seats from Labour, but few if any from the Conservatives. If this finding is at all accurate, it will be key to the result
I have read elsewhere that the Lib Dem vote is holding up in Tory target seats currently held by Lib Dem. This is certainly consistent with my own involvement which suggests we are extremely confident of taking Reading West from Labour whilst Zac Goldsmith in Richmond is less likely to win against the incumbent Lib Dem Margaret Kramer.

So a week out I think the media are busy slamming Labour and are not particularly open at recognising the likelihood of a Conservative majority. There is more money for the media in talking up a hung parliament.


11 comments:

Anonymous said...

There's going to be a (smallish) Tory majority government. Labour will be third in the vote, and smashed into insignificance in England - holding on only in Scotland and Wales.

Then, in June The Tories will cut spending by 25% by the end of the year!

Anonymous said...

BBC live stream is accessible in NZ NOW

Anonymous said...

The Guardian gives Cameron a significant victory - smashing Gordon Brown into third place

The debate polls mirror the electorate polls - Tories 36%, LibDem - 30%, Labour 25%/

Tory mjority govt - with a 25% cut in spending within a month!!!

Lib Dem opposition

Labour eliminated

sagenz said...

anon. Labour are not going to be smashed in seats. Whilst I agree they will probably come third in popular votes the vagaries of the electoral system will ensure the Lib Dems dont get more seats.

Psycho Milt said...

Not to mention, if the Conservatives did somehow manage to get a governing majority off 36% of the vote, the calls for electoral reform would become kind of hard to ignore...

Anonymous said...

vagaries of the electoral system will ensure the Lib Dems dont get more seats.

Depends. Remember Canada! The great thing is that if labour lose badly enough they'll be wiped out. In the PR EU election, Labour was down to 16% - after UKIP!


if the Conservatives did somehow manage to get a governing majority off 36% of the vote, the calls for electoral reform would become kind of hard to ignore.

Why? The Tories won England hansomely in the vote share last time around, but Labour got 72 extra English seats (all of which should have gone Tory).

sagenz said...

anon - I went back and looked again. You have a reasonable point. Lib Dem get more seats that Labour when votes are Lib Dem 30 Labour 27.1 Tory 35%. Seats become Lab 97 LD 104 and Tory 421.

Milt - There is no way the Conservatives will reform electoral law to any kind of PR. The electorate is not demanding it and they would struggle against Lab Lib coalition.

Anonymous said...

Seats become Lab 97 LD 104 and Tory 421.

Wow!! There's something real to hope for!

OECD rank 22 kiwi said...

Gordon Brown is going to get mauled on 6 May 2010 worse than Helen Clark did when she was unceremoniously booted out of office back in 2008. It can't come soon enough. I'll be doing my bit to vote Labour out of office on Thursday just as I did my bit to vote Helen Clark out of office. Good times.

sagenz said...

OECD - You can do more by going along to your local conservative association office on the weekend and delivering leaflets or knocking on doors. We need all the help we can get :^)

Anonymous said...

Gordon Brown is going to get mauled on 6 May 2010 worse than Helen Clark did when she was unceremoniously booted out of office back in 2008.

No. No way in Hell. Sorry but Hellen didn't get mauled - she went gracefully off to the U-fucking-N. She got hit nowhere near as hard as Bill English did...

But Gordon Brown is going to take Labour down to the worst result ever in the history of Labour. And best of all, once Labour loses, Gordon and Tony and Mandy and Campbell and all the fucking rest will be on the way to the Hague -