Thursday, December 3, 2009

Lies and the lying liars who tell them (with apologies to Al Franken for Ihamaereing the title.)

Auckland real estate.

Barfoots have trotted out another complete load of utter bollocks this morning about house prices in Auckland. Taking a data set and doing a "Dr Phil Jones" with it will not convince me that the good times are back.

Here is the reality. When the recession began it started at the bottom. This saw the low value housing stock suffer price collapse. As the recession deepens the pain spreads from the ground up. Thus we are now seeing the average value of house prices increase.
It just means that those that started from a more sound footing are starting to bleed.

I am thoroughly sick of seeing the lazy repeaters regurgitate these bullshit good news stories from the real estate industry/ banks/ desperate print media bleeding from lack of real estate advertising.

The "money shot" which makes a lie of the whole story is the last line in the story;
"Meanwhile, rental prices are slightly more unsteady, with the average rental price last month at $397 per week, $5 down on October but $16 up on November last year"

If rental prices are unsteady we are not in recovery



There was a lovely brick and tile bungalow up for mortgagee auction in Matamata today.
I think its CV was around $350K.
But if lovely, farm rich places can suffer, then we are still in trouble.
You can understand the boom and bust of the coastal and resort areas like the Bay of Islands and the Coromandel, you can understand the rough areas like South Auckland suffering.
But the fact that the dairy rich Waikato has Mortgagee sales suggests that you are right.
I still see places with discounts here in the real estate agents of the Waikato.

Medusa said...

FFM .... did you know your site is down?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

FFM, no matter what period of agri-prosperity you examine, you will find that in every year for the last hundred or more, there have been cockies going broke.

As for Barnsley's opinion, he's welcome to it but his logic is somewhat flawed. For a start, I don't believe the recession did 'start at the lower end.' I suspect you'll find the first thing that happened was that the steam came off the crazy prices at the very top end.

My experience of B & T is that they are not given to rushes of blood to the head and their analysis of market trends over the years has been reliable.

Anonymous said...

FFM, Mata Mata got flooded with offshore investors buying cheap renters. The Australians especially.
Its probably one of those.



Thanks for letting me know Medusa.
I have had much trouble with it.
I better have a look.
Or rather, get my technical guru to do so as I am off to bloggers drinks shortly.
Hope you are there Adolf.
I would love to catch up with you.

Plus other bloggers.

Pity I never introduced myself to Annie Fox two months ago when I had the chance.
But Annie was busy with other bloggers.