The continuing Hone Harawira story has a certain soap opera touch about it. Nevertheless it is fascinating to speculate how it might all end up. I see it this way .....
Scenario #1 ... No change. Hone stays with the Maori Party who, in the spirit of Aroha, forgive their errant MP after extracting from him a promise to 'behave' (whatever that means). One week ago I would have bet money on this. Now the comments of Sharples, Turia and Winiata have made this unlikely .... not impossible but unlikely. If they give way now their leadership will have been undermined to the point where Hone will walk over them.
Scenario #2 ... Hone resigns his seat and exits stage left never to be seen again except at Waitangi where he and/or his relations can, once again, turn what should be day of celebration into a day of confrontation. Possible but Hone has never walked away from anything.
Scenario #3 ... Hone walks and resigns his seat to stand again as an Independent. Maori Party also contests seat. Possible but unlikely. The Maori Party vote would split and, in all probability, Labour's Kelvin Davis would win the seat. Davis is already a List MP having stood against Hone in the last election. He is seen as one of Labour's rising stars.
Scenario #4 ... Hone walks and resigns his seat to stand again as a Independent with the Maori Party sitting out the election. My assessment is that Hone would bolt home. Would he achieve much as an Independent MP? Reality is the National/ACT/MP/UF coalition would still have the numbers. We might see him as sidelined and ineffectual but Hone would see himself as the voice for Maori grievances, real and imagined.
Scenario #5 .... Phil Goff puts Hone up against a wall and shoots him !!!!!!!!!!!!
Taking bets on #4
General Debate 22 September 2014
6 minutes ago