Sunday, November 15, 2009

MORE ON HONE

The continuing Hone Harawira story has a certain soap opera touch about it. Nevertheless it is fascinating to speculate how it might all end up. I see it this way .....

Scenario #1 ... No change. Hone stays with the Maori Party who, in the spirit of Aroha, forgive their errant MP after extracting from him a promise to 'behave' (whatever that means). One week ago I would have bet money on this. Now the comments of Sharples, Turia and Winiata have made this unlikely .... not impossible but unlikely. If they give way now their leadership will have been undermined to the point where Hone will walk over them.

Scenario #2 ... Hone resigns his seat and exits stage left never to be seen again except at Waitangi where he and/or his relations can, once again, turn what should be day of celebration into a day of confrontation. Possible but Hone has never walked away from anything.

Scenario #3 ... Hone walks and resigns his seat to stand again as an Independent. Maori Party also contests seat. Possible but unlikely. The Maori Party vote would split and, in all probability, Labour's Kelvin Davis would win the seat. Davis is already a List MP having stood against Hone in the last election. He is seen as one of Labour's rising stars.

Scenario #4 ... Hone walks and resigns his seat to stand again as a Independent with the Maori Party sitting out the election. My assessment is that Hone would bolt home. Would he achieve much as an Independent MP? Reality is the National/ACT/MP/UF coalition would still have the numbers. We might see him as sidelined and ineffectual but Hone would see himself as the voice for Maori grievances, real and imagined.

Scenario #5 .... Phil Goff puts Hone up against a wall and shoots him !!!!!!!!!!!!

Taking bets on #4

6 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

My money would be on option #3.

There would be no change to the number of Labour MPs, and just one less Maori Party seat.

On the other hand, I don't share your confidence that Hone would necessarily win the seat. He would win all the booths from Kaikohe north but the electorate is very large and comprises a good chunk of Auckland metro area.

I suspect Hone's 'invincible electorate support' will turn out to be a bit like Saddam's WMD. A mirage. That's why he has said he will fight to stay in the party. Those are not the words of a man confident in his personal mandate. He knows he might just not make it on his own.

PM of NZ said...

Scenario 1 with the confrontational part of 2. Hone will not go unless pushed, he already is walking over the MP. Being an independent is dangerous territory for him and he knows it.

Once he gets through the next few weeks, watch for real ballsy plays re F&S and self-determination - nobody will stop him. Not even JK.

Anonymous said...

Good if he quits the Party for then the Nats and Act will get more say and not have to consult the Tangata Whenua about all and sundry. Now that could be just what we need to get some actio0n in Wgtn.
Lets just encourage Hone to go it alone for now. That will be good.

Anonymous said...

Also remember that this evil shit and his mother think they own the Maori party. They have seen how the greens were subverted by the communists and they plan to do the same to the Maori party.

Problem is that the Harawiras have never been able to disguise for long their essential thuggish nature.

I hope the party has the balls to toss him out and run against him, the time of these monsters is over. Lets not forget his role as his mothers "minder" and her role in abusing people in her care that got her time.

Lucy said...

Im still betting on option #1

WAKE UP said...

All that actually matters here is that the intolerable Joris de Bres goes (and his absurd Office closed down) - he has actually created an atmosphere that encourages the Harawiras of this world. With him gone, the playing field will be as it should be.