Thursday, September 24, 2009

Goff Goff Splutter Splutter

It's the economy stupid.

The last two days have produced two headlines Phil Goff did not want to see. They are the headlines which cement in his party's looming defeat in 2011.

This week is the week Labour's slim chances were killed off for the next eight years.

The two headlines are linked, with dairy farmers already off to their banks to adjust budgets and plan spending for the significantly increased cash flows arriving in October, November and December. These will almost certainly ensure positive GDP growth in the December quarter so it only remains for the September quarter to show marginal growth and we are well and truly on the way.

It is quite clear that had Labour been in government, the recession would have continued. Their borrow and spend policies and their commitment to the non productive public service would have seen to that. National and ACT will have no trouble hammering this message home as unemployment conveniently declines during the run up to the 2011 election.

Meanwhile, Labour's loser strategists relentlessly pursue yesterday's story, Bill English's housing arrangements.


The Veteran said...

Hmmmmmmmmm ... so it was Labour's policies that led NZ into the recession some six months ahead of the world and National/ACT policies that pulled us out ahead of the rest of the world.

Sez it all really.

KG said...

"..Labour's loser strategists relentlessly pursue yesterday's story."
And National has allowed Labour corruption to become yesterday's story too.
The thought of Key taking Vogel's to the bilous cow at the U.N. is vomit-inducing--if he had any guts, any principles he'd be working to put her behind bars.

The Veteran said...

KG ... but will she dare eat it without having her official taster (H2) try it first.

Anonymous said...

Well said KG.

onelaw4all said...

I'm sure H2 has tasted more toxic things than dodgy Vogel's.

And quite recently, too.

Anonymous said...

A steady hand at the tiller over nine years of unprecedented expansion in the NZ economy left the old country in great shape for the Nats to take over.

The good doctor had the sense to dismiss the National Party's continued hysterical calls for tax cuts in 07, which would have left the economy primed to crash by end 2008.

Now we have the entertaining spectacle of the Nats claiming a resurrected Fart Tax as the Global Saviour of the World.

JK should be up on Broadway in a comedy show!

Anonymous said...

Anonymous @10.00

The unprecedented expansion of the NZ economy was in spite of the inept Labour gummint, not because of it. I would like you to show me one initative that Labour made to contribute to NZ's economic well being. All they did was take far too much money from those that made it and pissed it against the wall.-Enough new bureaucrats to fill a sports stadium being an example. The unproductive feeding off the productive. The good Dr should have confined himself to sarcastic wit as he was economically gormless.
Now we have to punch our way out of the catastrophic impost of the paradigm that the climate is warming but if we pay more tax it will go the other way. My view of politics as being a day care center for inept lunatics is being reinforced by the bread deilvery boy doing his rounds in New York as we speak.

Get it through your thick head, there is no rule that says things have to get better. The 'move-on. no accountability' crowd should be locked up as KG cogently observes.

You want bread? Have bread and water. Just kidding have a directorship and a UN appointment, can't have you facing the cold economic winds like the stupid proles, now can we?
If you think we have moved out of recession because of 1/10th of one percent, think again. The economic bubble in the US is about to burst and we are a mere freckle on the backside of the world economy.


Anonymous said...

Did the bread delivery boy break any bio security rules by presenting his gift to H1?

Sus said...

"The recession is over".

From the same people who never saw it coming in the first place?

Anonymous said...

Just a dead cat bounce. My pick is that the US will have a more serious financial crisis by middle of 2010 and NZ will follow into a deeper recession soon after.
In the US there will be such strong opposition to more bailouts that the market will actually experience serious self-correction (as it should have been left to do in the first place).
I pick late 2010 we should see some serious correction in our property market too.

Anonymous said...

Dead cat & "the stimulus"

and most likely measuring the wrong things.

For example, NZ businesses returned the WORST EVER result (per capita) - or the worst result in real times for the last 10 years last week - and the MSM said this was a good thing (because it improved the balance of payments).

This is so stupid as to be unarguable.

Let's take house prices: they're still at 5-6 times the average wage instead of 7-8 times. In other words, to get back to affordable 3-4 times the median wage, they need to fall about 2/3rds of current value.

In NZ, US and the UK, govt spending is rocketing up towards 50-60% of the economy. Like the protestors say: that's worse than in Communist Hungary in the middle of the cold war!

We're nowhere near out of this. Not by a long long way. As Brash said: NZ needs to have at least a 1/3rd crash in REAL living standards, more like 1/2, before the economy will return to something like balance.

NZ's growth in the last 10 years wasn't just in spite of Labour - it was actually illusory - by driving that growth via government sector, the productive part of the economy went backwards.

Now we have to pay the price. It will not be cheap; it will not be pretty; and we've hardly started yet.

David Baigent said...

Mr Anonymouse is always wrong.

That's why he/she/it remains ananymouseee.

Gutless blather!!

Paracelsus said...

The anonymous have it - the recession is far from over, except in that this is nothing so mild as a recession. It is a millenial shift in the world order, from West to East.
The underlying driver is that the USA has, over sixty years, moved from being a nation of manufacturers to a nation of debtors living way beyond their means.
The imbalance which remains to be corrected can be seen by asking how long the Obama's government can hold up the house of cards, and pretend that it is remotely sustainable to print money to keep an American auto worker making cars that nobody wants on wages and health benefits that are a multiple of what an Asian car worker gets, who makes vehicles that people do want.
At least New Zealand does produce, but the market it will be producing for in the future is an Asian one, and if we want to compete we are going to have to reset our ideas on tax, regulation and the number of unproductive people (bureaucrats and beneficiaries) that the economy can carry.
We are also going to have to get real about the languages that our schoolchildren are to learn.