Thursday, April 30, 2009

I Still Can't Find It

Update April 30th: The United States economy shrunk during the first quarter of 2009 by 6.1% (annualised rate) Curiously, that's exactly the same rate at which the Chinese economy grew during the same quarter. Now you know where to look for early recovery for New Zealand. More trade with China and India. (They are spending) and less trade with Obama's US of A which rapidly is becoming the economic train wreck of the 21st century.

The bloody recession, that is.

I see Fonterra is about to TREBLE its sales to China and has just cracked open the Egyptian market for its Anchor range of products. Sounds to me like the cow cockies will be having a pretty decent recession this time round. Anyone else picking better than $6.00 per Kg next year? With interest rates half the rate of a year ago?

The Herald reports that China is having a tough time because it's GDP increased by ONLY 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009.

Well folks, so much for the world wide recession. China appears to be not part of the world because recession means your GDP is in decline (euphemistically termed negative growth) for two consecutive quarters.

"China has reported its worst economic growth data since 1992. Growth slowed in the first quarter of this year to 6.1 per cent, but some analysts see signs of a recovery with hope that the last quarter was the trough.

Growth was 6.8 per cent in the last quarter of last year, but the first-quarter GDP figure dropped as exports fell 17 per cent last month."

Accordingly, Adolf asks that journalists cease the use of this outrageously exaggerated term 'world wide recession.' It is damaging negative propaganda and it is a lie.

I wonder how certain other countries are getting on? The ones which do not suffer from tax and spend socialist governments and their cradle to the grave social services and bloated public services? No doubt NZ, Britain, France, Germany, Italy and Canada are in recession but what about India, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore?

Where can I get a look at their 2009 first quarter figures?

Update: From the OECD website - final quarter 2008:-

India ....... GDP 5.92
Indonesia GDP 7.78
Czech RepGDP 0.32
France .....GDP 0.88
Germany .GDP 1.17
Italy .........GDP 1.47

So there you go. It's a world wide recession which doesn't include China, Indonesia and India - must be nearly half the world's population.


Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Perhaps the fuckwit who marked this post 'poor' doesn't quite understand that the countries currently experiencing economic growth are all very good and open commercial markets for the foodstuffs we produce whereas the useless pricks who ARE in recession largely hold us at arms lenth with assorted trade barriers.

PhilBest said...

Hear, hear, Adolf.

I was just reading this essay by one of my favourite writers, “Spengler” (David P. Goodman) at Asia Times Online:

“Why The West Is Boyle’d”

“The West still has no idea what kind of trouble it’s in......

".....East Asian singers, particularly Koreans, are working their way up the ranks of provincial opera companies, and every one of them sings better than Boyle. Who do you think is going to run the world 20 years from now? As the Italians say, we’re bolliti, “boiled”. Now we can spell it with a “y”….

“………Churlish resentment of high culture comes from the slacker’s desire for reward with neither merit nor effort: the sort of artistic skill that requires years of discipline and sacrifice is a reproach to the indolence of the popular audience of the West……

“……as I observed in a recent essay (China’s six-to-one advantage over the US, Asia Times Online, December 2, 2008)....Nearly 60 million young Chinese in all are learning Western classical music, and learning it the hard way, under teachers who demand mastery of technique, paid by parents who have scraped together tuition and demand regular practice……

“…….As a Wall Street executive, I had many opportunities to compare Western and East Asian job candidates. Invariably the Chinese candidate would come in with a doctorate in a quantitative field, keen entrepreneurial instincts, and an exemplary work ethic. Usually he or she would wind up crunching numbers for an American frat boy who glad-handed the customers, earning a small fraction of the frat boy’s pay…….

“…….Now the frat boys have less to do, for “salesmanship” has become a dirty word in the financial industry. The first trillionaires well might be entrepreneurs like Wang Chuan-fu of the battery company BYD, which might just launch the first successful mass-market electric car. The smartest Western kids went to business and law school, while Wang learned science at a provincial Chinese university.

Boyle’s stardom might prompt a closer look at the little Scottish town of Blackburn in West Lothian whence she hails, and, more generally, the state of the formerly industrial towns of Britain’s north. There is life after economic death, but it is not pleasant. Few places in the West are more disheartening. Young people have nothing to look forward to but a weekly Walpurgisnacht.

......On Friday or Saturday night, besotted boys and girls in extreme states of dishabille riot through whole quarters of ruined industrial towns. A good deal of Britain’s working class is unemployable at any price, too lazy to move to London to take the jobs waiting tables or driving buses that bring Spaniards or Frenchmen to the British capital.

A generation of Americans learned the wrong jobs: selling real estate, processing mortgages, and selling cheap imports from China at shopping malls. The cleverest among them got business degrees and learned to trade derivatives. Their services will no longer be required. On paper, it is obvious what America needs to do. Its economy went into free fall because everyone cut back spending at the same time in response to the crash of asset prices. The aging Baby Boomers need to save for their retirement, or retire later, now that their home equity has vanished along with the contents of their 401(k) plans. The only way for everyone to save at the same time without crashing the economy is to export, just as China does.

That works well enough on paper: but what are Americans to export? Not electric cars, it would appear. Warren Buffett isn’t buying General Motors these days, but he did put down over $200 million for a tenth of BYD, China’s contender in the electric-car sweepstakes. China requires nuclear power plants - it will install three a year for the next quarter-century - but America shut down its nuclear industry some time ago. There’s always Caterpillar, but the field of heavy earth-moving and construction equipment now is dominated by Japanese and German engineering, as a quick tour of the diggings for New York’s Second Avenue Subway make clear. America can’t even provide the capital equipment for its own infrastructure projects, let alone for China’s.

That Wall Street frat boys are in trouble is not a controversial statement. Top-of-the-market bubble behavior no longer is encouraged. Not long from now, they will be lucky to find employment getting coffee for a Chinese (or Indian) boss. The bubble accounted for so much of America’s employment down the food chain, though, that many millions of American jobs may vanish. This is particularly painful for prospective pensioners who find themselves in need of employment, for just the sort of jobs that suit older people - part-time retail work, for example, or real estate - are the first to disappear. America might find itself with millions of indigent elderly……

“…….The day is gone when a smile and a shoeshine will get you a shot at the American dream, but a smile and a song still will get you a chance at instant stardom. That is the message of hope that Susan Boyle bears to the beleaguered audience of the Anglo-Saxon world. In fact, her own little corner of Britain is living proof that hope may be entirely in vain. Whole parts of the industrial world never will come back. Nothing can resuscitate the north of Britain from industrial ruin, and portions of the United States appear likely to follow.

China’s thrift, industry and diligence are qualities born of long experience with hard times. The terrible suffering of the 19th and 20th centuries left every Chinese parent with the conviction that the world shows no mercy to mediocrity. They have less tolerance for fantasy than their Western counterparts. Reality has intruded on their lives for generations to the point that they are ready to meet it head on. Enough of them devote their lives to making their children excel as to produce an army of hothouse wonders so large as to swamp whatever competition the West might send against them. If Westerners think the present recession is unpleasant, they cannot begin to imagine how the recovery will look, for it may occur entirely remote to them, on the other side of the world…….”

PhilBest said...

Sorry that is long, but it is highly relevant and a very pointed assessment, agreeing with what you said, Adolf.

Note the last paragraph especially.

libertyscott said...

Actually Singapore shrunk significantly in the last quarter, it IS hurting though I don't have the figure to hand.

Oswald Bastable said...

At the end of the day, those that produce food always wind up supplying those who need to eat.

You can put off the new car, software upgrade or holiday in the sun for a few years. Not so with food.

Anonymous said...

fuck you for
a) believing the Red Army economic growth figures...
b) not understanding that china figures it needs a 5% growth rate per annum or they're fucked!

those that produce food always wind up supplying those who need to eat.
yeah you fuck. Those who produce food always wind up as the peasants (if they are lucky) of those who need to eat.

unluckly? slaves

thankyou helen. thankyou thankyou thankyou.

Australia digs up its country and sells it to China.

We just slave in our fields to feed China.

Australia has lots of other parts of their economy:
we don't.

thedavincimode said...

The prob Adolf & Oswald, is that they don't take everything we sell and in the context of what we produce, they are essentially commodity markets whereas we are struggling to get out of that trap. Also, last quarter 2008 is SOOO yesterday; last night is also SO yesterday in these gloomy times. Given the cheery news we've all enjoyed in the last few weeks, I wouldn't hold my breath on Q1 2009.

That said, it seems that the recent visit of a real bloke has perked the China relationship up a bit.

If nothing else, just the experience of being able to talk to someone without wincing over their bad teeth must be a huge relief to them.

Toronto Realtor said...

I must agree with Adolf here, media has exaggerated this one a lot. Calling it a global recession is just wrong and ignorant. There is many countries that are having no problems whatsoever.

Take care, Julie

Anonymous said...

Yeah well, those commies at the IMF and the EIU are forecasting a 1.5% reduction in the size of the global economy in 2009, which is a world wide recession to anyone who is looking and not spinning. Get real.

Judge Holden

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Judge Holden, you are a fool who's preoccupation with averages prevents hem from seeing the wood for the trees. If US,UK,EU, Canada and Australia are in recession while India, China, Indonesia and sundry other countries are enjoying economic growth then we can quickly pull New Zealand out of recession by expanding our trde with the lattter group of countries.

In case you are too dumb to notice, this is exactly what PM Key appears to be doing.

The words 'global recession' are a misnomer and a lie. There is a recession in most western developed nations. That is an entirely different thing and that was the original thrust of my highly intelligent and perceptive post.

Anonymous said...

If US,UK,EU, Canada and Australia are in recession while India, China, Indonesia and sundry other countries are enjoying economic growthChrist you stupid state-educated fucks are the best argument I've ever seen from banning anyone with a state education from commenting on blogs - let along posting - let along having anything to to with running a business or the country

1) who buys china's stuff? one guess?

2) how much will india & indonesia pay for anything we make?

Anonymous said...

Oswald Bastable - you need to check a bit of history.
Did you ever wonder why the Allies wanted to turn Germany into an agricultural economy after WWI ?

Well, its because agricultural economies are OK for subsistance, but they never ever get rich enough to truely develop beyond subsistance.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Auckland Grammar Dipshit:-

"2) how much will india & indonesia pay for anything we make?"

Quite a good price, actually. Go check out the international price for milk powder, fuckwit.

emmess said...

China, India and Indonesia may be almost half the world population but they are only probably about 20% of world GDP even at purchasing power parity measurements. If this isn't a global recession then WWI and WWII need to be renamed.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

ms, those are just three countries I identified. I can't find figures for Eastern European countries but the point I am making is that the constant media harping about 'global' and 'worldwide' is false and in fact damaging. You talk about 'world GDP' but in fact it turns out a big slice of the Western World's GDP was a mirage based on speculation and over fat unproductive gummint administrations, just like ours. Trim them all down and suddenly you will find the ration of genuine world GDP provided by those countries NOT in recession is a hell of a lot more than you think.

That is where we should be trading. Not with the US, UK, Western Europe and the other basket case socialist money jugglers. And yes, under Obama, the US has become a socialist state, in case you haven't noticed.