We have all heard about the fear mongering Peak Oil theory. Well I have one that is even more frightening.
By my calculations, PS was reached in Christmas 2007.
Then the western world's ability to buy consumer goods peaked and has been in decline ever since.
The credit crunch, recession and redundancies are compounding the paradigm shift that is going on in people's minds - do I really need it/ can I afford it/did I ever really need it?
What are the implications.
Well firstly there will be many relieved men out there.
Seriously, this is why governments should be no where near bailing out companies that make consumer goods, such as our own F&P, right up to the largest electronic and car manufacturers.
The growth reports that these companies modelled ther business plans on are now fish and chip wrapping. Like rivers they must now be allowed to run their natural course. Some will make it, others will dry up.
So where is the good news.
Well firstly, people will think of smarter ways to provide goods and services. This may not involve large shopping malls were the landlord sucks up 20+%.
Secondly,our society may become smarter as we look for new ways of doing things. Actually the new ways will really just be a reinvention of the old ways which served humanity well for 1000's of years, making do, going without, simpler entertainment, basic healthy food etc.
The really good news is that NZ will become a highly desirable place to hang out.
Our stability under a business orientated low tax government ( if the Nats are up to it), the ability to produce clean commodities, the least worst state of our banking system and the ability to make an honest return on investments will see good people and money queuing up at our borders. NZ passports will be gold and our beaches and mountains full of people enjoying low cost fun.
As Dohbama and Drown destroy the value of the usd and pound, plenty of people will be looking wishfully at NZ.
Bank on 1nzd=1usd one day, maybe sooner than you think.
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