Thursday, January 8, 2009

Back to the Ice Age?



After a spell of mild winters, the climate seems to be back to normal, as if it is ever normal.

Here's a pic of Trafalgar Square in London all frozen up amid Britains severe cold snap.

Yes, there has been much ice and cold lately. The coldest I have experienced for years. It almost takes me back 20 or 30 years ago when winters were certainly colder.

But despite a cold spell lasting longer than two weeks, making December the coldest in years; frustratingly, there has been no snow where I am.

Of course, just as one swallow doesn't make a summer, one cold snap doesn't prove or disprove 'climate change.' Indeed, the warmists say such variations can be expected even if the long run trend remains upwards.

Nonetheless, the winter has been far colder than predicted and it does make you wonder, if they cannot get it right for a few weeks or months, how the scientists can get it right for the rest of the century!

3 comments:

david w said...

without climbing into the whole messy "debate" i thought I should point out that your last sentence reflects one of the more retarded mistakes deniers make.

climate and weather are different things, it's hard to work out how weather events are going to happen in the short term becuase out calculations necessarily include a lot of uncertainty. On the other hand if we want to work the average result of a given input will be we don't need to calculate events we can just look at trend.

Take a six sided die and roll it 100 times. You have about a one in 10 000 chance of accurately predicting a third or more of the rolls, but it's almost certain the average of those rolls will be close to 3.5. Now start playing with loaded dice, you still can't predict individual rolls with any accuracy but after a while you can start working out how far the die has moved from equiprobability.

OECD rank 22 kiwi said...

AGW is a fraud perpetrated on the masses.

When is John Key going to wake up and scrape the ETS?

Clunking Fist said...

So, David W, how's that long term temp trend looking?

How's the corelation with CO2 looking?

What's the dif between a christian fundi believing in rapture in spite of there being no god, and a warmist believing that positive feedbacks exist in our earth's systems in spite of evidence showing there is a 95% chance of negative feedbacks?

(And the answer ISN'T: "there's no proof that God doesn't exist whilst heaps of evidence AGW doesn't exist".)