So Guyon Espinber was excited a few days back.
Miriama Kamo spoke of a 'surprise' in a month big on politics.
So what did TVNZ reveal with the September Colmar-Brunton poll, the first after Uncle Helen announced the election date?
And its bad news for Liarbour.
National gets first blood as John Key pulls well ahead.
Guyon says a change with the gap ballooning out from 14% to an 18% lead, in the first poll since Helen called the election date.
The Glenn saga has had some impact, Winston First has disappeared.
National 53% (up 2) Labour 35% (down 2) Greens 5% Act 2%.
Nats 66 seats, Labour 43 Greens6, Act 3, NZF 0.
John Key preferred PM on 40%, Clark on 31%.
NZ First is in tatters threatening to drag Liarbour down too.
Espiner notes some damage for Liarbour and ACT gaining but not at the expense of National.
However, Espiner notes growing economic confidence but National in the boxseat.