Sunday, September 14, 2008

TVNZ's September "surprise"- Nats 18% ahead-53 to35


So Guyon Espinber was excited a few days back.
Miriama Kamo spoke of a 'surprise' in a month big on politics.
So what did TVNZ reveal with the September Colmar-Brunton poll, the first after Uncle Helen announced the election date?
National gets first blood as John Key pulls well ahead.
Guyon says a change with the gap ballooning out from 14% to an 18% lead, in the first poll since Helen called the election date.
The Glenn saga has had some impact, Winston First has disappeared.
National 53% (up 2) Labour 35% (down 2) Greens 5% Act 2%.
Nats 66 seats, Labour 43 Greens6, Act 3, NZF 0.
John Key preferred PM on 40%, Clark on 31%.
NZ First is in tatters threatening to drag Liarbour down too.
Espiner notes some damage for Liarbour and ACT gaining but not at the expense of National.
However, Espiner notes growing economic confidence but National in the boxseat.

34 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

FFM, for God's sake, when will you learn to use a spell check?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

She'll sack him tomorrow.

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

It's the bloody keyboard Adolf.
It keeps missing the odd letter.
I made some corrections later.
Had I bought the laptop here in NZ, I would take it back, but the UK guarantee does not apply here.

But yes, what great news.
The bubbles will be out tonight, an Italian number from PakNSave, Albany.
The Lindauer was drunk last night.

Dear Leader might sack Winnie on Tuesday but she has left it too late now. I wonder if any tv network followed up the boxing story. Maybe tomorrow?

Anonymous said...

Puts Roger into Parliament, and probably Government. Sweet.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

It misses the odd letter because it is gummed up with bits of potato chips and pizza lodged between the keys and the contacts.

Anonymous said...

BBQ at Phil's!!

- Vinick

Barnsley Bill said...

I have seen the keyboard (and heard the excuses), Adolf is spot on.
In your fevered attempt to beat me to the post you wuddled your furds FFM.

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

It was quite a contest BB.
I see Keeping Stock and The Hive took part as well.
Everybody did well posting within a few minutes.
So which poll comes next?
And when?
Obviously Roy Morgan was a rogue.

Barnsley Bill said...

They are all rogues FFM, did anybody else discover that the google bomber is actually the niece of IPRENT??
Calling the elction has been a real wake up for me and quite a few other bloggers I suspect....

Post our way to freedom!

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

I just read that on the Thorndon Bubble, BB.
There was a Standard Post underneath the No Minister poll post where Lprent has a go at the media and yes, the niece reference is made.

Now, BB you don't seem to be syndicated on the Thorndon Bubble, which is a shame.
But based on the order the Thorndon Bubble publishes things,
No Minister came first, The Hive Second and Keeping Stock was third in posting the TV1 Poll result.
But you could have been anywhere, maybe first.

I see that No8 Wire has somehow hijacked the Thorndon Bubble still, so that its posts are always top of the list and which I always ignore.

I feel much better tonight after the TV1 poll. Roy Morgan was quite a distressing shock.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Long may she google bomb. Every person she sends to John Key's site means another part6y vote for National. In Labour circles, how many way ways are there to spell 'Oh fuck!'

Anonymous said...

Puts Roger into Parliament, and probably Government

Fuck year. Roger & Rodney both as ministers.


If I were a wellington Bureaucrat: I'd fucked because all the smart people have already gone to Canberra --- and there won't be any jobs in wellington!

Sam Mitchell said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lindsay said...

Is there any reason why ACT would be in government when National, as per this result, could govern alone? (not a facetious question)

BTW, what was the Maori Party result?

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

Maori Party 1.8% and 4 seats.
But Lindsay, there is talent in he ACT team that National could use.
And probably in the Maori Party too.

Sam J Bonner said...

Good question Lindsay. The Maori Party polled 1.8%, full break down of the party vote here - http://tvnz.co.nz/view/page/576182/2074846

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

Thanks Sam. I have now linked to the TVNZ and NZPA stories on the poll.
The number of MPs the Maori Party will be important.
I recall on Friday afternoon many ACT/National supporters wanted to see the Maori Party in a Key led coalition.
I too think they would have a valuable role to play.

Anonymous said...

Interesting to see Rodney Hide is up another 0.5% in the preferred PM to be 4th behing Peters.

Anonymous said...

National could govern alone but they should not.
A broad coalition against Clark and the red axis is needed.
Having other parties in government also shows John Key's inclusiveness and cross-party appeal.

Anonymous said...

"Labour trails by 19% in poll"

Oddly enough a UK poll showing almost the same margin.

Thousands of miles apart, but UK Labour and NZ Labour appear to be sharing the same fate.

http://www.teletext.co.uk/news/national/2d653fe932542db00965909a6db572ff/Labour+trails+by+19+in+poll.aspx

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

I posted on that poll earlier today.
But while Liarbour UK may dump Brown before the UK election, or even the Labour Party Conference, Dear Leader looks safe for the next 8 weeks.
Only when the votes are in will she be dog tucker.
As they say, BBQ at Phil's on the 9th.
Maybe Uncle Helen will announce her departure from NZ politics on Election Night.

Lindsay Addie said...

If Helen sacks the poodle in light of this very poor poll will the pooch get revenge by cocking it's leg and pissing in her shoes just for sheer spite?

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

The poodle will nip her heels and root her legs as well, leaving a nasty mess on her Nora Batty-like stockings.

It has been said that the Poodle knows his mistresses's dirtiest of secrets, including that of her husband.

Maybe that too is also why Dear Leader puts up with her poodle.

Lindsay Addie said...

Fairfacts,

Re Poodles I went a googling and found some very good advice for Helen and how she can deal with her poodle and keep him happy!


UNSTABLE TEMPERAMENTS: Poodles are a dime a dozen, and most of them are bred and offered for sale by people who don't have the slightest idea of how to breed good-tempered dogs. Obedience instructors and behavioral consultants see LOTS of Poodles with neurotic behaviors, including snappiness, extreme fearfulness, and hyperactivity.

PROVIDING ENOUGH SOCIALIZATION: Poodles need extensive exposure to people and to unusual sights and sounds. Otherwise their natural caution can become shyness or suspiciousness, which are difficult to live with and could even lead to defensive biting.

GROOMING: To keep their curly coat short and free of mats, Poodles require regular brushing, and also clipping and trimming every 4 to 6 weeks. Please don't have your Poodle clipped into the ridiculous patterns worn by show dogs. Poodles can simply be trimmed short, with short ears, a rustic whiskery face, and no pompoms on their head or feet or tail. Poodles definitely don't have to look like sissies.

BARKING: Poodles are often too quick to sound the alarm at every new sight and sound. You have to be equally quick to stop them. For the same reason, Poodles should NEVER be left outside in your yard, unsupervised.

Anonymous said...

Lindsay

I believe John Key has already made it clear he will be including other parties in government even if he has the numbers to govern alone and why wouldn't you when you can dictate the terms of inclusion.

showmethetaxcut

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

Thanks Lindsay
Thepoodle is extrmely snappy
but seems barking
just like its misstress

Anonymous said...

Is there any reason why ACT would be in government when National, as per this result, could govern alone? (not a facetious question)

Two reasons: the first is he is seetting up not a one-term government but a 10-year government under his permiership, and then at least another couple of terms, hopefully more, under Bill English or some other successor. This needs the widest possible base of support, so that as individual party votes fluctuate election to election, the government remains stable and continues.

The second reason is because many of the things for which Key is "ambitious" will require entrenching at say 75% --- the independent commission against corruption, the moves on regulatory responsibility, on full vouchers to be required for all public services, on constitutionally limiting the state's involvement in business or service provision. That will also require more votes than National is at all likely to get on their own: a rock-solid coalition ---- not just crap support agreements and constitution abominations like foreign ministers outside cabinet.

All these argue strongly for having a "big tent"
including ACT in the centre, UF and the Maoris to the left, hell even the greens if they'll accept collective responsibility (which they won't).
Anderton will resign next year so who gives a fuck about the progressives.

Anonymous said...

BTW, what was the Maori Party result?


The paper doesn't attempt to answer the question - it just assumes the Maori hold the 4 seats and Labour keeps the other 4. That's not going to happen: the Maori party will win all 7 seats (the few Maori polls over the last couple of years have been quite clear about that).

The poll says 1.8% overall (probably an underestimate depending how they could Maoris)
but that would still be only 2 seats: so the Parliament will be in overhang by up to 5 Maori seats. This is the effect of the Maorimander

That would give National+ACT say 70 seats;
Labour+Progs+Greens 50 seats.
Dunny would like to go with National but they don't want him, but add in 7 Maori seats and National only has a lead of 13 seats in total, or only 10 without including ACT (another reason why the must include ACT).

This also shows even on this "landslide" result, how close things are. Move only 5 seats from National to Labour/Greens (less than 4% swing back to Labour, giving 65 vs 55) seats then those 7 Maori Seats Decide the Government


So the real question is: what's the Party Vote split in the Maori Seats? Last time around, it went to Labour: it probably will this time too.


Which means either: the Maori Party support the Largest Party in Parliament -- and are wiped out at the next election, as the seats go back to Labour and the Maorimander overhang is wiped away

OR

the maori party support a Labour Government against the strongly expressed wishes of the "General Electorate". And that, frankly, will lead to civil war.

either way, the Maori Party is stuffed. And this is why are result like this poll, or very much close to it, letting National and ACT govern alone with a clear enough mandate to remove MMP & Take out the Maori seats in the first term - is the only way we can be sure NZ continues as a stable and prosperous society.

Gooner said...

Fuck the spell check, how about paragraph check!!!

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

Fair comment Gooner.
But as noted earlier, there was a rush to be first.
I think No Minister did well.
And judging by this being the 30th comment on this post, we did.

Anyway, it was great to see ACT up bit. Do you forsee more progress for ACT? I think we can exect a couple more points.
Not sure ACT will make 8% as mentioned at conference, by 4-5% seems within Rodney's grasp.

I do hope he can finish off the Mistress as well as the poodle. Rodney is doing well there.

Are you aware of anything new on the boxing match?

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

Yes, Rodders is starting to reap a rich reward for his works on Glenngate.
I do hope he can deliver on the Boaxing Match too.
Are you aware of anything else Rodders is working on Gooner?

Anyway, Party Vote ACT for me.

Anonymous said...

Do you forsee more progress for ACT? I think we can exect a couple more points.

Yep. I think ACT will be up around 10%.

If you analyse the Maorimander - then you quickly realise that the only way to ensure a National government is a substantial party vote for ACT. If ACT doesn't get at least 6 or 7 seats then the Maori Party (with its huge Labour party vote in the Maori electorates) will have the balance of power.

And the idea they'd go into government with ACT (especially) or even support it on confidence and supply is just completely crazy.

Under MMP's rort and the Maorimander, a party vote for ACT is the only way to ensure a National government, and to avoid NZ having its own "Troubles".

Anonymous said...

yes, lets get ACT upto at least 5%/ Ten would be nice, actually 40% would be better but you cannot have evrything.

pdq

Anonymous said...

yes, lets get ACT upto at least 5%/ Ten would be nice, actually 40% would be better but you cannot have evrything.


sure you can. Go back to FPP, introduce geographic constituencies & an income qualification --- or at least a conflict of interest exemption so civil servants (except police & Armed Forces) & beneficiaries can't vote --- Oh and stop Trades Unions (e.g. by allowing employers to sue for all costs they impose by organising) and stop political parties from getting union money

and you could have an election to rebalance the National vs ACT coalition every 5 years or so

And with that kind of government, well NZ might show the kind of growth Singapore has been showing in recent years.