Thursday, September 4, 2008

Roy Morgan Poll: What's up with the horses?

Well, I'm gobsmacked. I'm shocked. I'm horrified. I just cannot explain it.
The latest Roy Morgan Poll is out and it slows a slump in the polls for National, down 3.5% to 44%.
Labour is up four to 38%, though the commentators say it is at the expense of New Zealand First, who are now are on 2% (down 4).
The gap is now just 6% suggesting John Key will scrape in but only just. But what might happen in the campaign?
But what has caused National to lose several points as well?
Surely all that business over the secret tapes was just froth and bubble.
People, or at least the commentariat wanted policy, and while its delivery could have been better, they got it in spades. Where is Liarbour's policy?
But let us look at the big issue of the past two weeks. Winston Peters. Dear Leader has been joined at the hip to her poodle. She has backed him through thick and thin. She has been his willing accomplice, his partner in crime. Liarbour too should also have suffered from its association. National should have held its own while ACT, with Rodney Hide taking lead on the issue, should have gained. But instead no movement for ACT, no reward for ACT's integrity.
Are the people bored? Do Kiwis not care about corruption in government? Are Kiwis happy to reward that corruption so long as Helen delivers a few readies in the back pocket?
Not that she is doing that. Whatever might accrue from upcoming interest rate cuts and taxcuts will be gobbled in higher charges for fuel and other things, particullrly when they result from Dear Leader's Emmission's Trading Scam.
Which brings us on to National, whose policy seems litte different, as it is with just about every other policy.
We have heard much about National being Liarbour-lite, adopting its policies so not to 'frighten the horses.'
The policy seemed to have worked with National having poll leads of 20% or more, but these leads have been whittled down alarmingly. Is it because the inconsistencies of this, with National stumbling over what it would like to do, versus what it feels it can gt away with, causing all kinds of issues, as the secret tapes saga revealed.
Would National have done better if offering more clearer and direct opposition, not ashamed of his capitalist leanings and unafraid to offer a clear change for New Zealand, one that would make a real differenc to our prosperity, rather than hoping to nudge the horses towards it after an election.
Indeed, is there something wrong with the horses, or maybe I should say sheeple? But this horse is frightened tonight, frightened Liarbour will now win the eletion, a fear I have not held for quite some time. And if it does happen, then this horse is bolting!
UPDATE2: The Standard starts gloating.


Budgieboy said...

Lets not forget that 62% of our country don't want a bar of this lot.

She has thrown her lot in with Whinnie and when all those cards are played it might just hurt her badly.

By the time we get to the polls the economic news will be centre stage of none of it good. There will be plenty of projections about what the ETS is really going to cost Kiwis.

Dont give it away yet FFM, we will be shot of these bastards soon enough.

Anonymous said...

Oh dear!

I do not understand this at all. Are people feeling rich again?

There is not one Labour handout that has benefited me - a child free, healthy, 39% taxed person who has paid off her student loan (of 20K before no interest came in).

Are there many people like me around anymore?

With polls like this Helen may just call an early election.

Would like to bugger off to Oz but is an Oz Labor Govt any better than a NZ one.


Anonymous said...

The most likely reason is --- Labour stoogies bought or wrecked the poll.

of that we can be very clear indeed.

But this horse is frightened tonight, frightened Liarbour will now win the eletion, a fear I have not held for quite some time.

Yeah well more fool you!
note that if you believe the Roy Morgan Poll, when you add in the Maorimander: Labour governs alone with Greens & Maori in support.

that probably means - jail time for bloggers with EFA mk 2.

Would like to bugger off to Oz but is an Oz Labor Govt any better than a NZ one.

Yep. Because Australia has an anti-corruption commission and NZ doesn't. Google "WA Inc" or "NIck Grenier" to see what happens to Aussies who are 1/10th as corrupt as Winston or 1/100th as Helen.

In Australia, Winston & Helen would have been removed from Parliament in handcuffs and would have been thrown into Long Bay jail.

Psycho Milt said...

Did you imagine National was going to blithely continue to score 50% support right up to polling day, FFM?

I wrote a post on this back in March; here's an apt quote from it:

So, what can we say for Labour? First of all, right-wingers consistently under-estimate them. I remember the blog world of early 2005 - you guys already had that election won too, didn't you? And yet, oh dear - how bad things turned for you as the election got closer, and what a wailing and gnashing of teeth there was following the only poll that mattered.

Second, right-wingers always overestimate their own representative nature. Here's the thing, kids - the fact that all your mates think the same as you doesn't mean the country is behind you, it just means you hang out with other right-wingers. In terms of what the NZ population actually supports, the preferred policy programme looks a lot like Labour's. Stop kidding yourselves.

Still true today, I think.

Inventory2 said...

Just posted this on Homepaddock:

"I think the answer lies in the timing HP; this poll was conducted between the 18th and the 31st. Key kneecapped Peters on the 27th; Clark made her admission that she’d known on the 28th; Winston stood down on the 29th - all right at the back-end of the polling period. I would be very surprised if there’s not a bounce-back in the next Morgan poll."

ZenTiger said...

PM - there are a few right wingers well aware of the voting habits of New Zealanders. I have never been confident National would win, and MMP could change the balance in any event.

On the bright side, I'm not sure National can do the job anyway. I just heard they put Franks down at 60 on the list. Have they no whatever it would be that I'm thinking they need?


Well PM I ertainly wasn't expecting the gaps to close quite so soon.

You have a fair point too there IV2.
I just hope you are right.

But I feel worried tonight.

Of course, it might be a rogue poll.
That's what Uncle Helen would say.

Buggerlugs said...

IV2 is right - it's a blip. Labour is still fucked. National just has to ensure they're royally fucked.

pdm said...

I have been away for 6 weeks but as I recall the Roy Morgan Poll before I went away was out of kilter with all other polls as I suspect is this one.

I don't know what sort of indication the Jumungo poll yesterday gives but with about 10,000 particapants it must have some merit. I think yesterdays showed National 51.5% and Labour 27.5% which better reflects trends before I went away.

What do people think?

Gooner said...

I agree with the Miltmeister. I'm not surprised.

Check this post of mine out in May:

Elections in NZ have historically been very close except for 2002 when the Gnats got a thumping.

Dave Mann said...

The reason is quite simple. The electorate cannot discrern any difference at all between Labour and National because, apart from the gender and the dental structures of the two leaders, there IS no difference.

Nothing of substance at all would change under a National 'led' government and the electorate knows this deep down. Forget discussing detailed policy (because there is none published by any party at present)... the National party doesn't even present anything different in the way of philosophy or even a different mindset.

This country is failing alarmingly, but nobody on the political landscape at House of Representatives level seems to have any idea what to do about it.

I say nobody, but this might be doing ACT a slight disservice... however, even ACT seems to only just have begun to wake after a deep slumber.

We can expect the polls to fluctuate wildly in the lead up to the election as the electorate reacts like sheep to whatever is the latest piece of tacky crap that is being thrown at the time... but as far as a result of substance and direction is concerned it doesn't really matter a damn who wins because it will be business (corruption) as usual and nothing will actually change. School leavers will still leave as illiterates, we will still have no armed forces or police worth mentioning, the maoris will still be creaming hundreds of million dollars anually off the taxpayer, business and even homebuilding will continue to be strangled by green tape and more and more parasites will be stealing more and more benefit money off the productive people of this poor struggling country.

What we actually need is a complete change of focus and direction. Can you see this happening? I think not.

WAKE UP said...


Blair said...

People forget that even Muldoon in 1984 got a solid 36%, only seven points behind Labour.