Sunday, September 28, 2008

Nats increase lead in 3 News Poll, 49 to 36.



National increased its lead says 3News, the first poll since Dear Leader called the election.

Nats up 1 to 49%.

Labour down 1 to 36%, giving a 13% gap.

Greens down 1 to 5%.

NZ First no change at 3% so no NZ First.

Maori no change at 2%.

Act No change at 2% , giving 3 MPs.Natiional 62 seats , giving compfrtable coalition government.

Labour 46MPs, Maori 4MPs.

Preferred PM shows Helen up 1 at 32%, John Key 34% no change.

Helen Clark tainted by her association with Winston Peters and the failure of her attacks on John Key. Clark drops on polling well and poorly, says Garner.

Key says poll says it shows Liarbour attacks are personal and misguided.

Campaign not due to start offically for a couple of weeks, says Hunky Dunky, who says Liarbour is running out of time.

22 comments:

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Yes, I saw the piece on TV#. Strangely, Garner emphasised that the MP will win at least six, maybe seven electorate seats but credited them with only four in his analysis.

He must be blooming confused, grafting too hard or maybe he's focused on his dried arrangement.

Cicero said...

The question is will Labour's support stay in the mid 30's now that the voters know they cannot win. Remember 2002, ask Bill English.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Here's the corrected seat allocation:-

National - 62
ACT - 3

Maori - 6
Greens - 6

Jamdertin - 1
Dunny - 1
Axis - 46

Total 125

Cicero said...

Interesting numbers Adolf.

National + ACT is plenty to form a Govt. A working arrangement with the Maori Party would make for a mandate for strong reforms in many policy areas.

National should ignore Dunny if possible.

Dave said...

National wont form a coaltion with Douglas in cabinet. The way Helen clark is behaving she is encouraging people to vote National to such an extent that National can govern on its own even if it had no policies.

silly tart.

Actualy on these figures National can govern with Dunne.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

cicero, funny you should say that. I heard as trong rumour last week John Key was going to announce UF would be number one preference for coalition.

Serious mistake, if he does. Dunne has not a bone of priciple in his body. Bob Jones was right. He's the town bike of politics.

Cicero said...

I'd guess that Key would like Dunny in Cabinet because he's totally harmless. Like a toy dog that yelps and barks but never bites anyone or anything.

I'd rather see Sharples as a minister, he would challenge others with some new ideas. As for Douglas in cabinet, doubt it he'd be a big risk politically.

Anonymous said...

MP will win at least six, maybe seven electorate

welcome to the Maorimander.
Add in the Progressives, DBP, Dunny,
and National needs at least 15% over Labour to even have a hope of forming a government.

National + ACT is plenty to form a Govt

Naa, you'd ave to appoint Dunny as speaker.


As for Douglas in cabinet, doubt it he'd be a big risk politically.

Fuck the political risk. He can only be interested in one term, or even just one budget, at his age.

A better plan would be to first amend the electoral act: say going straight to 7 year terms (and ideally geographic FPP) and then start in the hard work on fixing NZ.

Douglas can resign in 2011 and John Key would still have 4 years or so to mitigate any political risk that remained.

Anonymous said...

Maybe but if you are the Govt. then where's the risk? Might be given a post outside of Cabinet. Be a darn good influence and don't forget English isn't poles apart from Douglass.

Cicero said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Cicero said...

English is going to have a tough job as finance minister.

The next govt will have cut spending, I'm sure the opening of the books on october 6 will have us all concerned.

Cullen is already out of his comfort zone.

pdm said...

Adolf - 6.55pm

Garner was probably jet lagged after Labour sent him on a wild goose chase to New York.

anon 8.06pm

I am not so sure about Dunne as speaker. While he wouldn't be a screaming shrew like Wilson he would pontificate for ever over everything.

Cicero said...

Dunne as speaker.

ewww!

Anonymous said...


The next govt will have cut spending, I'm sure the opening of the books on october 6 will have us all concerned.


it's the real opening of the books on about Nov 10 that we really need to be concerned about: the one thing we can all be sure of is that the situation is already much much worse than we'll told by Labour next Monday.


I am not so sure about Dunne as speaker. While he wouldn't be a screaming shrew like Wilson he would pontificate for ever over everything.


Well then- who?

In spite of everyone drooling about how great these numbers are, there's still not enough for a National/ACT government to be sure of lasting one term. It will be that close. Even with Dunny right inside. they'd still need a deal with the "no GST on food, no taxes on the Poor" Maori Party.

So then, who?

Russell Norman?

Tariana Turia?

Phil Goff? or Anette King?

Rodney? or even Douglas himself?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

I'd put Dunny in as speaker. He would be infinitely better than Wilson and he's too much of a wimp to do anything exciting, either good or bad. Thus the majority is three. Then there is the Maori Party with another six seats. Bring them into coalition and you've got a solid, broad based government, able to get on and do a real job.

However, I would not put Sir Roger in a cabinet. Just can't see him as a team man, unless he's the team all by himself. Lange was actually a weak person who allowed Douglas to run the show while Lange looked after the one liners.

WAKE UP said...

It is, of course, a sign of how stuffed this country is that the Maori party might hold the balance of power despite having only 2% of the party vote, just because it will win the Maori seats.

And before you leap for the racist epithet, let me tell you, I'd say that of ANY party that had only 2% or whatever.

Anonymous said...


And before you leap for the racist epithet, let me tell you, I'd say that of ANY party that had only 2% or whatever.


Yes - but Labour and Greens designed the Maorimander into MMP so that it would work precisely like this!


I still think that it is most likely the Party Vote in the Maori seats will go to Labour: and that it will be very hard for the Maori Party to coalesce with National. The Maori party was promising terrorism this morning if the Nats abolish the Maori seats.
But the alternative is worse: if Labour survives on Maori Party support if over the votes of hardworking taxpaying Kiwis.

Frankly if National+ACT gets just a one-seat majority, they should simply abolish the Maori seats right now, get rid of the MPs and they they'll have a very workable majority.

Heine said...

It is more than clear that National don't want to change that much and to bend along whatever the polls advise them.

Todays second refusal to allow Douglas into cabinet proves that Key is uneasy about allowing somebody like him into Cabinet. Fair call... if I wanted to show how much the Nats have gone soft over the last few years I wouldn't want him in either. However I wasn't a supporter of giving him a spot either... it would be bad for Douglas reputation. :)

Before the Winston fiasco National was willing to snuggle to him and Dunne. Hardly a political statement of serious intent for real change.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Before people get too carried away and make total arses of themselves, they might take to trouble to read what John Key actually said.

He did NOT say he would abolish the Maori seats. He did say he would BEGIN CONSULTATIONS on their removal AFTER 2014.

Psycho Milt said...

Yes - but Labour and Greens designed the Maorimander into MMP so that it would work precisely like this!

They're clever buggers, are Labour. Clearly they knew a decade in advance that the Maori Party would be formed and would kick Labour MPs out of the Maori seats. They figured out what to do about it, made the totally wrong assumption that the Maori Party would be a natural ally for Labour and then somehow persuaded National to write Labour's flawed solution into the MMP rules when National introduced it. Jesus - with Macchiavellian super powers like that, how can Labour possibly be losing?

Anonymous said...


He did NOT say he would abolish the Maori seats. He did say he would BEGIN CONSULTATIONS on their removal AFTER 2014.


RadioSocialism this morning. He will have a consultation process, a bunch of Hui, then abolish them. Of course, I think he should do it by december if he's got the numbers, and just chop the "elected" MPs in those seats too. End of problem, workable majority achieved without ACT.

They're clever buggers, are Labour. Clearly they knew a decade in advance

It's not hard at all to work out which way electorates will vote. It's not hard at all to work out that separate Maori seats help the left. By 1993 we had Winston (which started as a Maori Party) on 10% of the vote, even back in 1990 when this was being sorted we had Labour, NewLabour, Greens, Democrats, and especially Mana Motuhake.

I talked to lots of lefties at the time, all of them thought MMP was good because it would help the left against the right. Now we've had left governments - over the votes of hardworking taxpaying kiwis - for the last 10 years.

It's time for a change: a permanent change.


And as you well know, the process was spun via the electoral comission: the Nats introduced what the commission told them to.

emmess said...

National doesn't need to worry about the Maori seats if we get rid of MMP.
They become Labour's problem because they take left wing voters from general seats thereby reducing the chance of the left taking those. National should focus on getting rid of MMP and leave Labour to worry about the Maori seats