Colin Espiner seems as flummoxed by the latest opinion polls as I am.
He blogged yesterday noting there has been little change in the polls and other than hitting Winston First, the various scandals don't seem to be impacting on Liarbour.
When pushed about impacts from the economy and the lower price of petrol, Colin adds the following:
Labour usually gets a blip in the polls in spring. Don’t ask me why, but it’s happened each of the last few years. Slightly longer days, a guest appearance by the sun, the end of winter in sight, all make people feel a little better about themselves and therefore the Government. Add to that food prices have stabilised, petrol has come off its recent highs, and interest rates are (very slowly) tracking down. Optimism in the economy is up. We did well at the Olympics (believe it or not these things count). Plus, polls normally narrow close to an election as people turn their minds to issues and who is offering what. I think together these factors are working in Labour’s favour. People don’t pay too much attention to the sideshows, even if they are diverting they don’t make much difference to their lives.
So there we have it. Are Kiwis really so stupid as to blame the government for the cold winter? And as Dear Leader changes from Ice Queen to Sun Goddess, we show our thanks for the warm spring sunshine by switching our vote from National to Liarbour!
As for the other factors, well it doesn't sound so crazy. I recall much commentary in 1999 on Shipley and National losing the election once the All Blacks were booted out of the World Cup. It is legendary that in 1966 UK Prime Minister Harold Wilson secured his re-election on the back of England winning the World Cup.
And in the 1980s, I recall UK Liarbour Leader Neil Kinnock visting an old folks home and telling those present there were 'warmer summers under a Labour government,' not that that worked as Thatcher still won.
So on reflection we could well believe that public opinion changes in mysterious ways, even if it currently seems to be rewarding corruption by Dear Leader, who hangs on to Winnie's Coat Tails with every twist and turn.
In the meantime, I will look out of the window, look at the fading daffodils, hear the bleating of the newborn lambs and praise and appreciate the benevolence of this fine Liarbour-led government for the rural arcadia I currently enjoy!