Saturday, September 20, 2008

Another Iceberg Rips Open The Hull

This morning, Fairfax-Neilsen gave the Bilious Bitch and her Brown Arsed Dwarf a bit of a biff to go with their other bruises.



Winston gone, National able to govern FFP style, Clark's personal rating down, Key's personal rating up, Greens hovering close to oblivion.

It's enough to make a thirsty right winger dust of the Krug and start laying in stocks of ice.

Kelen Clark should continue to attack John Key and National. She's winning the election for us.

I'm seriously puzzled about ACT's failure to register any improvement although I must say National must be relieved at the prospect of not having to negotiate with Rodney Hide over Roger Douglas's role in any post election arrangement.

Party name Party Votes won Party seat entitlement No. of electorate seats won No. of list MPs Total MPs % of MPs
Act New Zealand 1.00% 1 1 0 1
0.81%
The Greens 5.00% 6 0 6 6
4.84%
Jim Anderton's Progressive 0.00% 0 1 0 1 * 0.81%
M�ori Party 3.00% 4 6 0 6 * 4.84%
New Zealand Labour Party 34.00% 43 0 43 43
34.68%
New Zealand National Party 52.00% 66 0 66 66
53.23%
United Future New Zealand 0.00% 0 1 0 1 * 0.81%
Totals 95.00% 120 9 115 124 1









































































10 comments:

KG said...

I'll believe it come Nov. 9

Anonymous said...

the comments on this post completely amaze me.

Frankly I blame NZ's state school system for it: John Key learned to add somehow but it seems no-one else did.

Under FPP, National would have 90 seats in a 120 seat parliament, and Labour and the greens about 20.

Under MMP - a huge result: national leading labour by 50% to 35% gives National a one vote majority to govern

To think this is a strong result for a centre-left (National) government vs a hard-left (Labour/Greens) government you must be wildly optimistic - and you'd have to assume that National's vote will stay at 50% (or increase) with all the mud that will be thrown in the next 8 weeks, and also be under the delusion that the Maori party will actually facilitate a National government.

For example: DBP going independent in Dunedin: one less seat for National - one more seat for Labour. Yet another rort (just like Anderton and the Maorimander).

While this is a good result under MMP & the Maorimander -but it does not guarantee a National government with a strong mandate to govern - as NZ's economy goes down the toilet

If the Greens get 4.5% - and NZF got 4.5% - and if ACT significantly raised it's party vote then you might have some progress

Helen is still on 34%. within the margin of error that's as good a result on this poll as labour has held since Sept 07 according to your table. Not down, and not out. Fighting hard, fighting dirty, and still with a much better chance of making government with the Maori Party's 6 seats over the votes of 50% of Hardwoking, Taxpaying Kiwis.

Anonymous said...

that's as good a result on this poll as labour has held since Sept 07

should have been: that's the second best equal result...

Labour's core vote is holding up: Labour+Greens are benefiting from NZF's collapse.

Labour government - that only 35% of the population voted for or wants. it's called MMP+the Maorimander.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

I made a blue and used the Sept 2007 figures. The paper printed the 2008 figures in the right cand column whereas one gets used to seeing 'current' figures in the first column of a spread sheet. Now corrected. Worse for the Axis powers.

Anonymous said...

"Key's personal rating up"

Wait a bit - his rating went DOWN, as did National's. The gap between National and Labour in this poll has narrowed by 1 from the previous poll. OK - it's well within the margin of error, but you guys seem to be believing your own hype. Weren't we meant to see a huge shrinkage in Labour's polling after the Peter's stuff? What happened?

Anonymous said...

Weren't we meant to see a huge shrinkage in Labour's polling after the Peter's stuff? What happened?

Some of Labour's vote went Green;
Most of NZF's remaining vote went to Labour.
Turns out the NZF voters who wanted National -
had already decided to go to National.

Party vote in the Maori seats remains solidly Labour.

What these results say the most likely outcome is the Maori Party with the balance of power.

Now: given a choice between political oblivion at the next election (if they support National, cos their voters are voting Labour at the Party Vote) or potentially triggering a civil war (if they support Labour, this ignoring the 119 seats actually elected by Hardworking Taxpaying Kiwi voters), well

You can be sure that the Maori Party will
support Labour

Remember what happened to NZF/Mauri Pacific
when they supported National - wiped out after the next election, the Maori seats with straight back to Labour. Maori aren't stupid: they understand the Maorimander. And they're using it to ensure that Iwi voters each get two votes.

The only way Kiwi voters can do the same is to split their votes: in everywhere but Epsom, that means Electorate Vote National: Party Vote ACT.

Now if 50% of the population did that - then Labour would be banned by Christmas and the Unions would be shut down and jailed, and NZ would be back on a path to rejoining the Western world.

can't see it happening myself.

Heine said...

Yep, National would be relieved, but NZ would be the poorer for it.

I look forward to the campaign and the polls getting better for ACT. National should be thrilled that an MP like Sir Roger wants to work with them. It is a sad sad day that they would rather work with Dunne than Sir Roger.

OECD rank 22 kiwi said...

The CLARK/PETERS AXIS can't win.

I'm sure ACT will pick up in the polls and do rather well on 8 November. Roger Douglas as Finance Minister is exactly what the country needs, in these troubled times or any other.

Psycho Milt said...

can't see it happening myself.

My God, a ray of reality shines through Anonymous Fascist's paranoid delusions! Will it be a one-off?

I'd love to see you turn up at a Maori Party event and give them your clear differentiation between "Maori" on the one hand and "Hardworking Taxpaying Kiwi voters" on the other - would be fun to watch the outcome.

Still, your comment is a stirring return to the Brash National Party of 2005, in which no-one was left in any doubt that "Kiwi" meant "White."

FAIRFACTS MEDIA said...

I have seen some more National billboards around Rodney and I can't say I'm impressed.
I can opnly hope the thirst for a change shown in the polls will win through.
Do billboards matter? Hopefully not as much as policy and the results of nine years of Helengrad.