Saturday, August 16, 2008

Dead Cats And Dog Tucker

Nearly all the media are calling Clark's grand strategy for what it is. Abject failure.

This morning's Fairfax-Neilsen poll has National at 54 and Labour at 35 with the best news left for last - Winston First at 2%. It confirms the folly of Labour's 'secret agenda' scare attack.

John Armstrong (who some foolishly label as a leftie) spells it out for her and Duncan Garner previews her plans for revival - a vacant parking lot.

Helen Clark has misunderestimated the intelligence and morality of the electorate.

It is clear to them that Labour master minded the taping of National's MPs. That's the perception and nothing Cullen or Clark or Williams or Mallard can say will change it. Voters don't like blatantly dishonest dirty tricks but that's all Labour has left in the tank. So much for her personal strategic prowess.

The polls are only going to get worse as the SFO closes in on Winston's slease ridden activities and more and more people are waking up to the fact that Clark, Williams and Labour are all involved in it up to their necks. They chose to get into bed with Winston and now that he's crapped in the bed, they are unable to change the sheets.

I agree with Whaleoil. There will be an early election.


Lindsay said...


She hasn't underestimated them enough or too much?

Given the electorate is buying all her policies under a blue banner I think she can retire rather pleased with her innings.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Lindsay, in case you hadn't noticed, this post is not about policies. It's about ethics and behaviour and their effect on public opinion.

Lindsay said...

You are quite right. I missed your point. My problem is whenever I see an indication that National is going to be the next government I get wholly distracted by the prospect of more of what we have had for the past nine years.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Hello Lindsay

Sorry if I sounded a bit abrupt. I didn't mean to.

Yes, that's a serious affliction you have. You'd better have it seen to. Better still, cure it by actually looking for the differences instead of the similarities. Current opinion polls would have you and your mates out of the game but for Rodney Hide and Epsom. If enough Act people throw enough shit at National you might find the Gnats standing a real candidate in Epsom. Then you could all stand outside the Beehive sctaching your heads and ruefully ponder what might have been.

Lindsay said...

You may also ponder what might have been. National almost won in 2005 with a strongly differentiated agenda. They should have stuck the course, given Helen's lot were losing favour with every passing month. They could have got a mandate for real change instead of buying a pup.

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Well, that's as maybe. I think we are much better off if we can set up a very large majority by way of a Gnactionalbro coalition which can confidently look forward to ten years in which to get the ship back on course. This will require some of Acts policies, many of National's policies and not a little influence from the Maori Party.

Can you just imagine what a dog's breakfast would have been a coalition between a Don Brash led National Party, Act and Winston First?

Act and National would have been tarred with all the crap that is at last about to engulf the self important little spin triped dwarf.

(Didja like that spoonerism? Not bad, if I might say so myself!)

No thanks.


Lindsay, I share many of your concerns about National being Liarbour lite, but for the sake of the election National needs to get elected and if that means swallowing a few dead rats, then we have to swallow them.
But without wanting to sound psychophrenic I also believe a clearer more right wing stance would certainly give National a stronger stick on which to beat Liarbour.
Certainly Brash left National in a very strong position when he resigned.
But current policy seems to be working so I am happy to go along with that, despite having reservations on certain individual polices.
What ACT and National needs to do is presented a united front against Helengrad and everything it stands for.
The priority is to slay the dragon and this won't happen if we fight amongst ourselves.
Once elected, I am ure National policy will evolve in a direction that ACT will approve.
But sadly the MMP system means there is unlikely to be a clear winner and progress will be slow.
The public need time to be educated about the need for more market reform and this will happen.
It is not a case of having hidden agendas as Liarbour claim, but one of bringing people on board.
Lockwood Smith's taped comments reflected the realisation by National that it needs to be in tune with the voters.
And I'm sure once in office, National will be able to better communicate a new direction for the country.
But as Key says , there will be no surprises, no hidden agendas, so unlike Liarbour who has implemented measures like the EFA without pre-election approval.
National has said it will consult with people, so i guess we will have to be patient and see what happens in a second or third Key term.

Anonymous said...

But how can it be "early"? Assuming a minimum of 4 weeks from the time the election is called to the event, the earliest it can be is mid sept. Thus this Parliament has run 3 years.

Anonymous said...

National can be pleased with this latest Fairfax poll.
But Roy Morgan's is a little troubling.
If NZ First survive National and ACT will need 50% or more to form a government.
That nighmare scenario of the Maori Party and others propping up Liare could well happn, even if National is 10points or more ahead.


Anonymous said...

Christ I thought you fucks were supposed to be "reality based. Things are bad when Lindsay is saying the most sense.

National almost won in 2005

National did actually win the election in 2005. But our Rorted MMP system is so left-biased that Labour got to form a government.

Even on current polling, 54 - 34 still isn't enough to guarantee a National government. You're forgetting the overhang, progressives, Dunny, and especially the Maorimander. All work together to ensure a Labour victory.

There will be an early election.

First: do you really, really, really think Helen will call an election she thinks she would lose? Do you really think she's as stupidly as overconfident as Rob? And even if you think she's that stupid then why would she go any earlier than she has to?

More likely the election will be on the last possible date, and that the electoral comission & high court will be stacked to give labour every damn chance. You know, like last time.

Even more likely there will be another big "terrorism " arrest. in wellington this time, the election will be postponed - indefinitely - and some excuse from Key's business dealings will be dredged up to get him either shafted by National (like Brash) or just smeared directly.

Helen and H2 and the rest - and Winston and his mob too - all know jail is waiting for them when a National/ACT government is formed. Do you really think they will let that happen if there is absolutely anything they can to do stop it.

Hunting accident.... Car crash... underage male prostitutes ... who knows?

Adolf Fiinkensein said...

Good God, another loon in comments. And I suppose Hitler won the second world war because he killed the most people?

Anonymous said...

Hitler won the second world war because he killed the most people?

Nope. Stalin won the second world war and he killed the most people.

(Mao doesn't count - but China obviously won the piece, and Mao killed even more than Stalin)