Wednesday, April 30, 2008
"By 2025 GDP will fall by almost $6 billion, household spending will be down by $3000 per household and hourly wage rates will be down by $2.30 in today's prices."
With New Zealand the only country in the world known to be including agriculture in an emissions trading scheme, the rural economy would be particularly hard hit, Layton added.
"Because it is so far-reaching, covering all sectors and all gases, the ETS-plus could also cause a range of unintended adverse environmental consequences unless response measures are put in place to address them," the institute says.
What is so frustrating is that nowhere can I find the actual figures from the poll. I'd like to know how ACT and the Maori Party are polling. Further, I'd like to see ALL the figures with last month's figures alongside.
We are told that 'undecideds' are polling at 6%. Where were they last month? Are they swinging to National or Labour? (By my calcs, if 65% of the undecideds go National in the polling booth, then National's margin over Labour would increase by 1.8 percentage points.)
It looks as though we may be heading for a decisive FFP result.
John Armstrong reckons this poll has just about killed off any chance Cullen has to get some releif from his upcoming budget.
".........Budget Day is the one day Labour will have voters' undivided attention. If the polls don't budge, then what? The load on Cullen's shoulders just got heavier."
It seems quite a lot and much debate is now emerging over how the 'success' of government in restricting supply, is causing what others claim is 'market failure'.
Yes, both energy and food markets are seeing a huge increase in demand from India and China, both to fuel their growing economies and to better feed their richer palettes, as they seek a more 'Western' diet.
But if government regulations restrict supply, then what?
Obvious a commodity becomes scarce and its price will rocket.
This is true whether it is oil, rice, or as we have seen in other debates, land and housing.
Over at Not PC, Peter Cresswell notes how government restrictions on oil supplies, with large areas of the US 'off limits' to oil exploration' is preventing the market from meeting the demand for extra fuel.
Had the market being allowed to supply the extra demand from India and China, oil prices would not have risen to $100 or more a barrel.
It's not a failure of markets, it's an obvious success of government: success in stifling production of the very stuff of industrial life, and in burying the ability of producers to respond to price signals in the way they need to.
The same applies to global food markets, where in some countries governments are now banning the exports of foodstuffs, thus depriving farmers the chance to make the best return and deterring them from increasing production.
Creswell links to other surveys and reports saying as much.
Indeed, I have come across a worthy article from The Intellectual Conservative, which refers to government and energy's role in 'the coming economic meltdown.'.
Government policy over the last several decades in all fields of energy production has had the direct impact of restraining energy supply while demand has grown.
As these policies have impoverished the United States they have enriched Middle East, African and Venezuelan oil suppliers.
In addition, this policy has undermined the security of the United States by weakening the United States economically, destabilizing the LDCs (lesser develope countries) by food shortages, and through direct payment “leakage” to terrorist organizations.
Indeed, a full read of the article will also note the folly of following many so-called 'green' policies.
Not only are such policies fuelling recession and inflation, as their higher costs take money and spending power out of the pockets of workers/consumers, they typically have as many or more environmental drawbacks than traditional policies.
So when in New Zealand, Liarbour plans an emissions trading regime, look at how it will hit you and your employers' pocket.
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Over the holiday weekend I had the pleasure of visiting Murapara, about 40 minutes drive south-east of Rotorua.
My friend wanted to catch up with whanau, so why not.
The road to town on wide straight roads built for forestry was fast and as you arrive into town, you see a fine sitting of forest clad hills, a river, and potential for tourism.
But the township? Oh what a shit hole! It makes Kaikohe look like Remeura.
As we drove past the roughest of wooden bungalows, with paint peeling from the outside, we saw a car racing around with a Maori sovereignty flag on it. Well, if Tuhoe want independence, let them have it, and WINZ can cut the money tap off too.
We approached 'uncles' house, one of the roughest on the street, with even more peeling paint. Uncle was there, and was having steak and eggs with his missus. The wallpaper was peeling off too. It was shabby to say the least the least. And they have about 4 kids too.
Outside, a grey kitten limped between the abandonned cars and in the garage, two 'cuzzies' were getting stoned. Well, they faced a long bus ride from Rotovegas to Wellington that afternoon, so maybe getting wasted would help them face the ride. Dad didn't mind they were doing this, he said they were, and his young teenage daughter was happily smoking cigarettes in front of him.
I looked back at the streetscape outside. Shabby houses , half with satellite tv. Now either aerial tv reception is poor or sky tv is very popular. People also sat on the decks outside their homes and unlike, sy Auckland or Orewa, kids actuallyplayed in the streets.
Soon after I asked Uncle about what work there was for him on Murapara. He replied he didn't work, his job was to look after the kids. I didn't ask if that was the wife's job, who incidentally had just bought a $900 from Vodafone and claimed billing problems with it.
Anyway, the two cuzzies needed a ride into town. While uncle had what probably was the flashest car in town, a late model Holden V8, we did the honours with my mate driving and the cuzzies smoking dope on the way. I kept the window open to avoid getting stoned as well.
Well, Murupara certainly feels another country to New Zealand, even to Rotorua. And uncle's place was quite a contrast to staying in the Heritage, where we went soon after the bus stop drop-off.
Heading back to Auckland, we stopped off at another cuzzies, who lived in Hamilton buy a busy junction. The shabby unit had a broken window and five kids played in the garden, sectioned off by a metal fence. The mother looked old for he 30 or so years, but her kid number 5 was on its way. The father looked quite stapping in his black singlet. There was no word of work for either, just my mate noting his cousin was just 'popping out babies.'
Later that day, I told my mate's brother about his uncle having such a flash car when the house was a wreck. "Must have been a good harvest'" he replied, obviously not referring to wine or grain. And among the books lying in his house was a well-worn copy of Maori Heroes by Alan Duff, which noted a former acting-PM of NZ was Maori. So hopefully some family members get a different message.
Yes Maori can achieve like the rest of us, but so many, Pakehas too, need a kick up the backside.
As I reported a few months back with a similar trip up north:
"People do not succeed or fail because they are Maori or whatever. They succeed or fail because of their own efforts or lack of them and how they apply themselves in life. And if there is any party or government that can spread this message, it can only be good for all New Zealanders."
And that applies to all those suffering poverty, brown or white. The answer and responsibility for their predicament lies within themselves and with government for allowing such fecklessness.
The answer to child poverty is not a $4 billion programme as touted by campaigners but rather a revolution in attitudes and policy.
Monday, April 28, 2008
Late last week, I posted about future scenarios of muslim domination of Europe and the USA, which are attracting the attention of novelists.
I was quite flattered to receive responses from one of those novelists, Tom Kratman, who has just published a book 'Caliphate' on the issue.
Of course, it will be interesting to see if Hollywood ever develops the balls to turn any of the books into movies, or will they be too scared to, or do such books offend their PC sensibilities?
Anyway, will the world turn out the way these novelists imagine and fear? Is there an alternative? There could well be, but this alternative is not a happy scenario either.
Over at the Gates of Vienna, we see a post outlining how indigenous Europeans might have to remove the muslims from Europe and in the article 'surrender, genocide or what', the future looks bloody
Little Green Footballs accuses Gates of Vienna of 'genocidal porn' for even considering the issue, also responding with a psychonalytical view. Gates of Vienna denies advocating genocide and it has led to further discord between the two blogs.
This latest post at Gates of Vienna follows an earlier post late last year in which the author El Ingles outlined a possible scenario for a future civil war in Denmark.
Both makes interesting reads, not that I'm advocating genocide either. But both posts outline the grim prospects ahead for Europe.
Of course, there is always surrender as Brude Bawer outlines is already happening from a combination of both political correctness and fear, in a post LGF posted today, so obviously no nasty talk of genocide here.
Hate to sound like Winston Peters.
To think we have several thousand ethnic Chinese with such strong ties to the motherland that they will protest and some will turn violent to those who support a free Tibet.
And there was similar violence from Pro-communist Chinese in Canberra too.
Crusader Rabbit recently noted how Chinese 'heavies' were allowed into Australia.
And yes, there was violence from the pro-China demonstrators, with involvement from the Communist regime strobngly suspected?
While the bulk of our Asian immigrants will be decent law abiding folk with much to offer New Zealand, how many might be a fifth column to ultimately cause our downfall? I'm sure I'm not alone in fearing what seems like organised Communist trouble in our corner of the world, amid our 'benign strategic environment.'
PS. In the meantime the Chinese are allowed to buy Vector for $785 million, which somehow aint strategic. But Cullen will break international law and deny $1.7 billion to shareholders of Auckland International Airport to stop those evil Canadians from owning a share.
UPDATE: And Bernard Hickey notes Dear Leader will have to choose between hypocracy in accepting the deal and stupidity in turning it down, with Bernard opting for hypocracy.
UPDATE2: The Briefing Room links to an Investigate story with revealing stuff about the new owner of Vector.
Sunday, April 27, 2008
On one side, you have a bitch who is a lawyer, married to a lawyer, and a lawyer who is married to a bitch who is a lawyer.
In one of those flying pig moments, we see a union leader attacking Liarbour over the lack of taxcuts.
EPMU boss Andrew Little has slammed Cullen for "dithering" over taxcuts.
One week the government was saying the cuts would take place this year, and then the next week it was suggesting they would be next year.
"People are looking for some sort of relief now. People need it, and the government should understand that very clearly."
The comments come as the EPMU also backing National over John Key's fibre-to-the-home plan.
Now, please remind me, which political party Andrew Little was meant to aspire to be its president.
Or is is just a 'red herring' and Little is now finding Key's National Party muc more amenal and discredited than Helen's tired old bunch of socialists. Perhaps he ha noted his own members fleeing from Liabour in droves.
Perhaps, if the EPMU is allowed to register as a third party under the EFA, it might be working against Liarbour rather than with it!
The new logo for The UK Office of Government Commerce was unveiled yesterday to much delight... followed by much embarrassment when one thoughtful worker turned their head 90 degrees and noticed that it looks like... well - look for yourself.
How very appropriate for the Liarbour Party or perhaps a fictional Organisation of Government Campaigners.
Hat Tip: Barnsley Bill
It turns out Treasury made it crystal clear to Cullen that his proposed action in blocking the sale was (a) unjustified on logical or economic grounds; and (b) was damaging to NZ's reputation and the future governance of the Airport company itself and (c) would result in a massive loss to shareholders. Here's what they said to this flea brained history teacher.
"If that's not enough, Treasury also noted Government intervention in this sale process would arbitrarily change the property rights of existing shareholders, which may cause both domestic and foreign investors to be sceptical about the certainty of New Zealand's regulatory environment and therefore be more wary about investing in Kiwi firms.
But the crucial factor as far as the NZX is concerned is that Treasury also noted the Auckland Airport share price was likely to drop immediately following an announcement and existing shareholders were likely to see the Government as responsible for the immediate loss in value of their shares and as such, "potentially liable for the full difference between the new share price and the full value of the CPPIB offer"."Adolf calculates that loss to be in the vicinity of $1.7 billion dollars.
That's the fiscal time bomb Shady Cullen is leaving for John Key to fund, when the government has to pay out the shareholders.
As corporate crooks and other thieves go, Shady Cullen makes Ron Bryers look like a saint.
Saturday, April 26, 2008
Politics would certainly be duller without Liarbour Party President Mike Williams.
The Weekend Herald's Michele Hewitson produces a fine profile on the confused and loose chappie.
As well as spotting some more 'confusion', David Farrar lists a few other roles Mike performs in addition to his Party role, giving the 'rich prick' an income of more than $180,000.
Of course, it all helps when you have 'mates' in government.
Hat Tip: Kiwiblog
The Weekend Herald has performed a fine piece of journalism including much original research by looking at growing food prices.
It has discovered supermarket food prices for an “average” trolley have gone up 29% in the last year.
This, David Farrar notes, is more than the official food price index, which is weighted to what people actually buy, but both the official and the unofficial surveys show that food inflation is strong and growing.
Of course, much can be put down to the biofuels balls-up as government's try to be 'green', and rely less on imported oil.
But growing fuel prices also impact on growing food prices, not just because food often needs to be transported.
It certainly makes a mockery of planned government-led fuel price rises for emissions trading regimes, and allowing regional councils to impose petrol taxes.
Thus, Liarbour has a double whammy in store for us. Higher fuel prices which in turn will mean even dearer food.
A deliciously delightful serving of six spankings for Dear Leader from the Saturday papers.
1- Fairfax Poll in the Dominion Post having National 18% in front.
2- The same poll reporting one in ten Kiwis eyeing up Aussie. So on top of the growing kiwi exodus which the Double Standard was playing down this week, we see Kiwis increasingly considering the ultimate act by voting with their feet against Dear Leader and her government.
3- A scathing and sarcastic editorial against Liarbour in today's Dom-Post.
Granny Herald also praises John Key.
4- Colin James noting how John Key is taking the lead and is a man of the future by promoting broadman while Liarbour is the party of the past, wanting instead to buy back rail.
5- Fran O'Sullivan says Key's safety first leadership is paying off, though he needs to show more leadership to defeat Clark and reverse the country's continuing decline.
6- And Liarbour wouldn't be Liarbour without a bit of corruption within a ministry- this time Immigration.
Happy ANZAC Weekend Helen!
Friday, April 25, 2008
Kevin Rudd is dishonest and insincere because he:
tells bare-faced lies;
knowingly distorts the truth;
is duplicitous and hypocritical;
advocates senseless policies.
Kevin Rudd is a serial liar and Australia does not deserve such a Prime Minister! Learn more about RuddSpeak here."
We see the latest of those today with the major Sunni block moving back into the political mainstream. Note also a very small piece in the NYT. (Greater prominence was given to some apparent criticism of George Bush by John McCain.)
Of course these moves were the very things the defeatist Democrats were demanding as signs of success in Iraq, back when they never believed such moves could ever happen. Now that these 'benchmarks' have been met you can rely on the duplicitous, despicable Democrats and their international handmaidens to dream up a new batch of unreachable benchmarks.
It is beyond their feeble minds and moral dishonesty to admit the reality that all along George W Bush might have been right.
Had it been up to this bunch of modern day Democrats, the US would have shrugged its shoulders in December 1941 and offered to give the Japanese a free hand in the South Pacific. After all, that's in Japan's back yard, not America's, so why not just leave them to do their own thing?
Can’t let an ANZAC Day go by without raining on the right’s “They died for freedom” parade. These guys went through stuff we’ll never even have to imagine, so let’s do them the respect of not glorifying what it was about. Here’s a prayer you won’t hear this morning:
Here’s to the soldiers. All of them. The ones who died and the ones who lived. The ones from NZ and from every other country, from the ANZACs to the Waffen SS, who got sent off to kill and be killed in misery and squalour because their bosses were greedy, stupid or overly loyal when it comes to sacrificing someone else’s life for the local hegemon.
In NZ, we remember our brave men whose lives were thrown away because the British Empire was competing with some other empire in some part of the world we have no interest in – places like
Let us remember, and be smarter next time.
Thursday, April 24, 2008
Like "Gulliver's Travels", "The Flying Inn" is both a serious social comment and a lot of fun. There's a reason it's still in print after all these years," said one reviewer.
Edgar's complaint seems to be that when leftwingers criticise some aspect of the left, they then jump the centre and head straight for the right. Well, it's easy to name examples where that's true, but really what Edgar is arguing is that unless you sign up to his vision of the left, you have by definition joined the ranks of the right."
It's all very well calling yourself progressive, David, but whatever happened to progress?"
Others believe in the truth instead.
Therefore to the left, those people are ‘right-wing’.
Therefore truth is actually a right-wing concept.
Therefore truth is evil.Therefore truth has to be relabelled lies while lies of course remain unchallengeable truth."
"It is no exaggeration to say that, since the vast majority of the media and intellectual class in Britain are on the left, this mindset has quite simply poisoned British public debate and brought us to our current state of suicidal irrationality in the face of an unprecedented global threat."
Indeed, as a follow up to a recent post when I referred to the facism of the left, I was attacked over it. On other occassions I have been branded a facist myself.
"Four significant public policy changes are certain: the size, scope and spending of the federal government will substantially expand; income taxes will go up; protectionism will replace free trade; and a commitment to global internationalism will saddle America with a broad Kyoto global warming agreement that, according to the U.N. Climate Treaty Secretariat, should exempt China and India.
Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama have proposed increasing annual federal spending, respectively, by $226 billion and $303 billion – the Obama total being about a 10% increase. Neither of them as president would likely limit any spending – not entitlements, not earmarks, not farm subsidies."
Mr. Obama is near victory in the Democratic contest, but it is time for him to reset, freshen his message and say something new. His conduct in the last several weeks raises questions about whether, for all his talents, he is ready to be president", Rove conludes.
"There is a risk that wage settlements respond to these short term price shocks rather than adjusting to the changing economic conditions, thus perpetuating inflation pressures," Dr Bollard said.
Over time, the weaker economy would ease accumulated pressure on resources and reduce inflation pressures, but the labour market was still strong and New Zealand's key international commodity prices remained high. Government spending plans and the possibility of personal tax cuts could also be expected to limit the economic slowdown.
Consumption grew faster than incomes and faster than the economy's productive capacity, propelled by the wealth effect from an exceptionally strong housing boom.
But they point to factors that might make this cycle different and inflation more persistent, especially in sectors immune from competitive pressure. Among them are the impact of fuel surcharges, the emissions trading scheme and relentlessly rising local body rates.
"People are desperate for Nanny State's help. Parents are desperate for help to get children to eat healthily," she said.
This photo was taken in Chicago, 2008 - not Berlin, 1938.
" When asked if he was a Nazi or sympathized with Nazis or white supremacists, Zirkle replied he didn't know enough about the group to either favor it or oppose it.
"This is just a great opportunity for me to witness," he said, referring to his message and his Christian belief."
National are up three at 50%, Labour up 1 at 35.5%, Greens are down at 6.5% and Winston Peters is where he deserves to be. Out on his arse.
|arty name||Party Votes won||Party seat entitlement||No. of electorate seats won||No. of list MPs||Total MPs||% of MPs|
|Act New Zealand||1.50%||2||1||1||2|| ||1.60%|
|Green Party||6.50%||8||0||8||8|| ||6.40%|
|Jim Anderton's Progressive||0.00%||0||1||0||1||*||0.80%|
|Labour Party||35.50%||44||0||44||44|| ||35.20%|
|National Party||50.00%||62||0||62||62|| ||49.60%|
|United Future New Zealand||0.50%||1||1||0||1|| ||0.80%|
Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Treasury has obviously had another one of its 'ideological burps' in supporting the Canadian bid to buy 40% of Auckland International Airport.
So what if Treasury reported the sale would 'breach international agreements, scare foreign investors and damage the economy.'
What do those experts in Treasury know that our history professor does not about the world economy? We cannot have grubby foreigners buying our 'strategic assets' unless they are Chinese wanting to buy our Vector power company and we Kiwis must still be able to buy foreign airports like Infratil owns in Prestwick, Scotland.
We must listen to Dear Michael, who has such a fine record of economic management, that has given kiwis burgeoning wealth and prosperity, and left government finances in such a sound, fiscally prudent state, with much better public services all round :)
The last set of greenhouse gas figures, before the election, was released this week, and NZ is 26% over its Kyoto target. By comparison Australia and the UK are on target to meet their target.
Now Labour in defence says that okay we may have an appalling actual record, but we do have some good policy. But what is the record:
*Biofuels legislation slammed by Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment
*Tradeable Emissions scheme legislation slammed as near useless by Greenpeace
*The deforestation disaster
*The Fart tax debacle (the issue wasn’t that it was a tax so much as the hypocrisy of taxing for carbon debits and not letting farmers share in carbon credits)
One other such winner was, of course, proven liar Al Gore.
Of course, how seriously can we take the United Nations? Not much. Especially its Human Rights Council, which in recent weeks has called for an official study into the role of 'neocons' in causing 9-11, following the appointment of 9-11 'troofer' Richard Fall.
The HRC , backed by its Islamist members, recently called for a curtailment of freedom of expression, particularly where criticism of Islam was concerned.
And in case you're wondering, this Human Rights Council contains such members as Egypt, Angola, Qatar, China, Russia, Cubia and Saudi Arabia- all noted for their fine records on human rights, personal redom, etc, etc.
But there again, considering how she behaves in government, Dear Leader is getting recognition from ideological bedfellows, bedfellows she undoubtedly will feel at home working for, hopefully quite soon!
Update: I thought the news had a familiar ring to it. The announcement was actually in January and Dear Leaer should have accepted her prize in Singapore this week. But we can enjoy more such fun in New Zealand on June 5, when the UN's World Environment Day stages its main celebration in Wellingon..
Update 2: David Farrar notes New Zealand's record is worse than that of George Bush and John Howard. Even the Greens and other lefties aren't impressed.